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Climate change poses a grave threat to the flood resilience of communities, with the Climate...
Recommendation
Climate change poses a grave threat to the flood resilience of communities, with the Climate Change Committee warning that warming of 4°C or more implies inevitable increases in flood risk even in the most ambitious adaptation scenarios considered. The Government needs to be frank about the level of risk it is prepared to accept in extreme climate change scenarios, and those likely to be affected need to know now. The Government should explain how a reasonable worst-case scenario for increased flood and coastal risk due to climate change would impact upon its national objective for flood resilience, and what this would mean for funding and decisions about whether to protect any given place.
Paragraph Reference
36
Government Response
Not Addressed
Government Response
Not Addressed
HM Government
Not Addressed
Risks from flooding and coastal erosion are recognised in the Government’s UK Climate Change Risk Assessment and are a key part of the UK National Risk Register, ensuring Government plans effectively for a reasonable worst-case scenario for flood risk. Critical national infrastructure must have high levels of resilience, including for flooding. Government’s policies on flood and coastal erosion risk management are informed by the latest climate projections and evidence, including the independent Climate Change Risk Assessment evidence report.9 The 25 Year Environment Plan sets out the Government’s commitment to ensure that all policies, programmes and investment decisions take into account the possible extent of climate change this century. The National Flood Resilience Review extended the National Flood Risk Assessment analysis for river and coastal flood risks to develop new “plausible extreme rainfall scenarios”. These scenarios, developed by the Met Office, were based on historically extreme rainfall events, to which were added substantial but plausible uplifts of 20–30%. Six catchments were then ‘stress tested’ using the Environment Agency’s detailed models to predict the flooding which could be associated with these extreme rainfall scenarios. The National Flood Resilience Review used these extreme flood outlines to test the resilience of key local infrastructure assets. Through the Surface Water Management Action plan, the Government has commissioned the Environment Agency, in partnership with the Met Office, to develop plausible extreme scenarios for surface water flooding and assess their possible impacts. The Government will then assess whether there are any implications for the extreme flood outlines on its surface water flood maps and will take this modelling into account in the next review of the National Flood Risk Assessment. The Environment Agency’s National Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy for England10 supports risk management authorities to plan to adapt to a range of climate change scenarios, including higher scenarios such as a 4°C rise in global average temperatures. Robust climate change guidance for new development and infrastructure is also provided to ensure resilience to a range of climate scenarios. The Environment Agency is also working to update the National Flood Risk Assessment which will launch by 2024 and will underpin the Environment Agency’s flood risk management, providing the tools and evidence needed to support action to increase resilience. For the first time it will provide the flexibility needed to evolve with changing climate data. Long-term investment decisions to manage these risks follow an adaptive approach. This takes account of climate and demographic changes over time to enable local decision makers to identify the best combination of resilience actions and the right time to act and invest. The Environment Agency’s Long-term investment scenarios11 for flood and coastal erosion risk management cover a range of climate change scenarios.
Timeline
Recommendation age
5.3 yrs
Report published
08 Feb 2021