By mid-September 2020, case rates were rising across the country, but there were significant local differences. For example, on 30 September, the incidence of covid ranged from 607 per 100,000 population per week in East Sussex, to 4,318 in Knowsley.182 To 177 GOV.UK, ‘List of participants of SAGE and related sub-groups’, accessed 17 August 2021. One participant, Dr Demis Hassabis, attended in a personal capacity, so we do not include them in our analysis. 178 Oral evidence taken before the Science and Technology Committee on 25 March 2020, HC (2019–21) 136, Q40 179 House of Lords Library, ‘Leicester lockdown: Changes since July 2020’, accessed 17 August 2021 180 House of Commons Library, Coronavirus: A history of English lockdown laws, 30 April 2021; Health Protection (coronavirus, Restrictions) (North of England, North East and North West of England and Obligations of Undertakings (England) etc.) (Amendment) Regulations 2020 (SI 2020/1057) 181 HC Deb, 20 October 2020, cols 1015–16 [Commons Chamber] 182 GOV.UK, Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK: 30 September 2020, web archive, accessed 17 August 2021 Coronavirus: lessons learned to date 47 rationalise the increasingly disparate sets of restrictions being imposed on different places, on 12 October 2020, the Prime Minister announced a three-tier system of local restrictions:183 • Tier 1 maintained the rule of six184 and a 10pm curfew for hospitality; • Tier 2 did not permit indoor gatherings (including hospitality) but allowed gatherings of up to six people in outdoor settings; and • Tier 3 a ban on household mixing and hospitality being closed. Retail, schools, and personal care remained open.