Prisons & Probation Rapid Evidence Collection No formal response

Prison Overcrowding and Deaths in England and Wales: Findings from a Predictive Analysis and Modelling Study

5 September 2025
Predictive analysis examining the association between prison overcrowding and deaths in custody (2014-2024). Projects that self-inflicted deaths could increase by 21% by 2029. Contains 3 strategic recommendations.
3
Recommendations
3
Open
Government Response
No formal government response published. Report published September 2025.
Recommendation 1
Expand healthcare provision, particularly mental health services, in high-risk environments such as Category B male prisons.
NHSE, HMPPS, MoJ Open
Recommendation 2
Target suicide and self-harm prevention in prisons with occupancy rates at or above 100%.
HMPPS Open
Recommendation 3
Enable establishment-level research by allowing routine data sharing with independent research teams to better understand mortality risks and how to mitigate them.
MoJ, HMPPS Open