Value for Money
Building an effective and resilient Probation Service
Published 24 October 2025
15 recommendations
Ministry of Justice
Crime, justice and lawPrisons and probation
nao.org.uk
Government must actively manage risks associated with its plan to boost weak performance in the Probation Service.
Recommendations (15)
Source: NAO Recommendations Tracker
Ministry of Justice
Rec 1
Response Pending
To understand and effectively manage risks associated with the OFPS programme: HMPPS should carry out a detailed assessment of the potential impacts of setting an ?Open? risk appetite for its OFPS programme and articulate this clearly, including seeking agreement from senior departmental staff;
Ministry of Justice
Rec 10
Response Pending
where actual staff-reported activity timings exceed HMPPS?s expectations for tasks, set out how it plans to support staff to reduce the time spent on those tasks, for example by process improvements, changing policy requirements or more learning and development; it should then track whether reductions are realised;
Ministry of Justice
Rec 11
Response Pending
set out contingency plans for if it does not achieve the reductions required, including any risks associated with its plans; and
Ministry of Justice
Rec 12
Response Pending
assess whether its workforce plans will deliver the additional staffing levels assumed in its calculation of the capacity gap.
Ministry of Justice
Rec 13
Response Pending
Where MoJ and HMPPS are making significant changes to the level and depth of supervision and support for different groups they should: build in robust monitoring and evaluation to assess the impact of changes in supervision and support, including whether lower- and medium-risk groups can access services that meet their needs;
Ministry of Justice
Rec 14
Response Pending
assess whether CRS providers and wider organisations have the capacity and/or funding to absorb increases in demand; and
Ministry of Justice
Rec 15
Response Pending
work with other government departments to monitor and react to any adverse impacts in other areas of government.
Ministry of Justice
Rec 2
Response Pending
MoJ and HMPPS should agree clear risk thresholds to help manage trade-offs as the programme progresses and establish how it will measure whether it is breaching thresholds; and
Ministry of Justice
Rec 3
Response Pending
HMPPS should put contingency plans in place to mitigate any risks that materialise.
Ministry of Justice
Rec 4
Response Pending
To minimise the change load of OFPS on staff, HMPPS should: ensure it has a full understanding of how changes from OFPS and wider policy changes affect the service;
Ministry of Justice
Rec 5
Response Pending
schedule and manage the rollout of changes to minimise the change load on staff, considering the need to balance any shorter-term reactive changes and longer-term strategic solutions;
Ministry of Justice
Rec 6
Response Pending
set out a rollout schedule and training plan to communicate to staff when changes are due, and when they may need to complete any learning and development; and
Ministry of Justice
Rec 7
Response Pending
implement regular feedback and review on change implementation, to give early warning of any need to adapt plans.
Ministry of Justice
Rec 8
Response Pending
To ensure that HMPPS frees up sufficient capacity and to improve quality, it should: review the estimated capacity gap, in light of wider justice system developments, and ensure its calculations factor in any headroom needed to facilitate improvements in quality;
Ministry of Justice
Rec 9
Response Pending
put in place mechanisms to validate whether changes are achieving the estimated reductions in workload at a national level;