Eighth Report: Economic impact of coronavirus: the challenges of recovery
Select Committee
Treasury Committee
HC 271
11 September 2020
Government response
Fifth Special Report: Economic impact of coronavirus: the challenges of recovery: Government Response to the Committee’s Eighth Report of Session 2019–21 · published 20 Nov 2020
Recommendations & Conclusions
30 results
1
Conclusion
Accepted
Para 31
In the first half of this year the UK suffered its worst recession in modern...
Conclusion
In the first half of this year the UK suffered its worst recession in modern history. The latest GDP figures suggest a bounce back has begun. But the path of the economy does not only depend on the course of …
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Government Response Summary
The government acknowledges the committee's observation by outlining the extensive ongoing support packages, including extending the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and various loan schemes, stating that protecting jobs and livelihoods has been its economic priority.
HM Treasury
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2
Conclusion
Accepted
Para 32
Consumption is returning following the lifting of Government restrictions.
Conclusion
Consumption is returning following the lifting of Government restrictions. However, continued consumer caution around re-engaging with the economy, the prospect of more localised outbreaks and a second wave are dampening a full recovery to pre- pandemic levels of consumer spending. …
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Government Response Summary
The government acknowledges the report and details its ongoing economic priority to protect jobs and livelihoods through over £200 billion in support. It outlines extensions to schemes like the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme until March 2021 and various loan schemes until January 2021, along with adjustments to allow loan top-ups.
HM Treasury
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3
Recommendation
Acknowledged
The Chancellor was right to begin stimulating consumption at the time of the Chancellor’s Plan...
Recommendation
The Chancellor was right to begin stimulating consumption at the time of the Chancellor’s Plan for Jobs, especially in the hospitality and tourism sector, to ensure these businesses, often reliant on summer months, did not start cutting jobs. However the …
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Government Response Summary
The government acknowledged the need to consider additional measures, stating it is continuing to monitor consumer spending trends and that its economic response will evolve and adapt as needed, without committing to specific new actions.
HM Treasury
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4
Conclusion
Accepted
Para 58
We believe the Chancellor was right to start measures to combat long term unemployment in...
Conclusion
We believe the Chancellor was right to start measures to combat long term unemployment in July. Rising unemployment becoming structural and permanent is a critical risk arising from the crisis.
Government Response Summary
The government highlighted the successful implementation of the Kickstart scheme, detailing the vital role of almost 500 registered gateway organisations in assisting smaller employers. They committed to continuing to respond and adapt the scheme to ensure maximum impact for employers and young people.
HM Treasury
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5
Recommendation
Acknowledged
Para 59
As the crisis moves beyond full lock-down, it is important to effectively target assistance to...
Recommendation
As the crisis moves beyond full lock-down, it is important to effectively target assistance to those businesses and individuals who need it. The ability of labour to move from sector to sector will not be a painless process and will …
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Government Response Summary
The government acknowledges its commitment to levelling up, citing ongoing work like establishing a Public Value Framework, developing priority outcomes, reviewing the Green Book, and relocating civil service roles, but does not specifically detail a plan for managing the transition to mitigate the crisis and prevent further inequalities as requested.
HM Treasury
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6
Recommendation
Accepted
A large proportion of businesses in sectors such as hospitality and leisure that are suffering...
Recommendation
A large proportion of businesses in sectors such as hospitality and leisure that are suffering most from social distancing may still have a viable long-term future at the end of October. It is not clear to us that the Job …
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Government Response Summary
The government extended the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme until March 2021 and introduced new targeted grants of up to £3,000 per month for businesses forced to close due to new restrictions. They also provided backdated grants for hospitality/leisure sectors and £1.1 billion funding to local authorities.
HM Treasury
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7
Recommendation
Accepted
Para 61
It is vital that workers made redundant have the opportunity to reskill.
Recommendation
It is vital that workers made redundant have the opportunity to reskill. We heard evidence that the poor reputation of schemes in the 1980s actually reduced participants’ employment prospects. Even though the Treasury is unlikely to be responsible for delivering …
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Government Response Summary
The government agreed with the recommendation to monitor and evaluate reskilling schemes, committing to establish a framework for gathering evidence and evaluating programmes as part of the Spending Review process.
HM Treasury
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8
Conclusion
Accepted
Para 62
The Government also needs to make sure that the requirement for employers interested in offering...
Conclusion
The Government also needs to make sure that the requirement for employers interested in offering fewer than 30 Kickstart roles to apply through a representative organisation does not make the scheme inaccessible to SMEs and charities.
Government Response Summary
The government highlights that gateway organisations are already in place and play a vital role in making the Kickstart scheme accessible to smaller employers, with DWP having implemented a new registration system. They state a commitment to continue adapting the scheme for maximum impact.
HM Treasury
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9
Recommendation
Acknowledged
Para 79
The crisis has hit different groups of people unequally.
Recommendation
The crisis has hit different groups of people unequally. It is also likely that the differences in hours of paid work carried out between men and women observed during the lockdown may lead to a widening of the gender pay …
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Government Response Summary
The government states it will "consider" publishing an updated distributional analysis at an appropriate point but outlines challenges in producing it for wider characteristics. For the request to include unemployment rates, they note that the Office for National Statistics already publishes this data by various protected characteristics.
HM Treasury
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10
Recommendation
Accepted in Part
The Government has raised Universal Credit and made it easier to access.
Recommendation
The Government has raised Universal Credit and made it easier to access. However these changes are time-limited for a year. The Government should consider extending the measures increasing the generosity and accessibility of Universal Credit put in place in March …
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Government Response Summary
The government states that the £20 increase in Universal Credit will continue until April 2021, partially addressing the call for extended generosity. However, it only references existing enhanced Statutory Sick Pay provisions rather than committing to conducting a study on its adequacy and eligibility.
HM Treasury
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11
Conclusion
Accepted
Para 100
It remains unclear how the Government expects businesses to pay back loans in the future.
Conclusion
It remains unclear how the Government expects businesses to pay back loans in the future. The crisis and the lockdown of the economy meant that businesses have largely forgone revenue which many are unlikely to make up in the future …
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Government Response Summary
The government responded by detailing the Pay as you Grow initiative, which offers businesses flexibility in repaying Bounce Back Loans, including extended repayment terms up to 10 years, interest-only options, or payment pauses.
HM Treasury
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12
Recommendation
Rejected
We are concerned that there may be a significant lack of capacity and willingness for...
Recommendation
We are concerned that there may be a significant lack of capacity and willingness for the private sector to step in to provide solutions for corporate indebtedness especially amongst small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Viable SMEs struggling with debt will …
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Government Response Summary
The government rejects the recommendation to outline a plan for recapitalising SME balance sheets, stating that accredited lenders, not the government, are best placed to support borrowers with government-guaranteed loans. They have considered the proposed interventions but maintain their view.
HM Treasury
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13
Recommendation
Deferred
The Treasury should evaluate whether there needs to be a new state body or a...
Recommendation
The Treasury should evaluate whether there needs to be a new state body or a remodelling of the British Business Bank, to provide loans at speed in a crisis if required, and to also play a part in recapitalising businesses …
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Government Response Summary
The government notes the British Business Bank's key role in the COVID-19 response and states it will consider lessons learned from this experience to inform future recovery phases. It also describes existing mechanisms for supporting strategically important companies.
HM Treasury
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14
Conclusion
Deferred
Para 121
One legacy of the crisis will be a sharp rise in the level of public...
Conclusion
One legacy of the crisis will be a sharp rise in the level of public debt and, possibly, an ongoing rise in borrowing. This has been and will be necessary to contain the economic damage from Coronavirus and does not …
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Government Response Summary
The government acknowledges the need to ensure the long-term health of public finances but defers setting out a detailed roadmap or revised fiscal framework until "in due course," as the economic and fiscal outlook becomes clearer.
HM Treasury
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15
Recommendation
Deferred
Para 122
The Chancellor should, at the next fiscal event, set out an initial roadmap of how...
Recommendation
The Chancellor should, at the next fiscal event, set out an initial roadmap of how he intends to place Government finances on a sustainable footing. The milestones on that roadmap will need to be flexible—tax increases imposed too early are …
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Government Response Summary
The government acknowledges the need to ensure the long-term health of public finances but defers setting out a detailed roadmap or revised fiscal framework until "in due course," as the economic and fiscal outlook becomes clearer.
HM Treasury
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16
Recommendation
Accepted
Para 133
In order to prevent “levelling up” becoming an empty slogan, the Government should produce a...
Recommendation
In order to prevent “levelling up” becoming an empty slogan, the Government should produce a strategy underpinning it that defines clear objectives and includes the indicators it will use to gauge success at the next fiscal event. The Government needs …
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Government Response Summary
The government is committed to levelling up and is currently developing a new Public Value Framework to link departmental spending to outcomes, defining medium- to long-term priority outcomes and metrics for success, as announced at Budget 2020. They are also reviewing the Green Book and relocating 22,000 civil service roles by 2030.
HM Treasury
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17
Conclusion
Deferred
Para 138
We welcome initiatives by the ONS to improve the quality of its regional data, for...
Conclusion
We welcome initiatives by the ONS to improve the quality of its regional data, for instance by producing quarterly regional GDP figures. The Treasury publishing regional data in its March Budget is also a good first step towards increasing the …
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Government Response Summary
The government clarifies that the OBR's mandate is primarily national, as defined by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011, though it undertakes some sub-national work. This implies that a broader role in monitoring "levelling up" is outside its remit.
HM Treasury
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18
Recommendation
Not Addressed
Para 139
The Treasury and the OBR should consider raising the profile of regional data in their...
Recommendation
The Treasury and the OBR should consider raising the profile of regional data in their publications. We also recommend that the Bank of England develop their datasets from their Regional Agents network and Decision Maker panel and endeavour to highlight …
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Government Response Summary
The government response copies the recommendation text but only addresses the Bank of England's part, stating the Bank will consider whether more regional data could be published. It does not address the recommendations for the Treasury and OBR to raise the profile of regional data or to review their remits.
HM Treasury
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19
Recommendation
Accepted
We call on the Government to throw its diplomatic weight behind the global community in...
Recommendation
We call on the Government to throw its diplomatic weight behind the global community in investing in public health systems in developing countries; ensuring that testing, treatment and a vaccine when developed is made as widely available Economic impact of …
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Government Response Summary
The government confirms support for vulnerable countries with over £1 billion aid, championed the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, committed £150 million to the IMF's CCRT, pledged a £2.2 billion loan to the PRGT, and committed £1 billion for global COVID-19 vaccine access for low and middle-income countries.
HM Treasury
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20
Recommendation
Not Addressed
Para 165
Local authorities are critical in responding to local outbreaks effectively.
Recommendation
Local authorities are critical in responding to local outbreaks effectively. In the forthcoming Spending Review or budget process, local government spending must not be treated as a residual and must be costed based on the submissions put forward by local …
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Government Response Summary
The government response provides a general update on its economic support measures during the pandemic, including extensions to the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and business loan schemes, but does not address the specific recommendation regarding local government spending and its costing in future reviews.
HM Treasury
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21
Recommendation
Not Addressed
Para 166
The Government should as soon as possible set out in a public document the type...
Recommendation
The Government should as soon as possible set out in a public document the type of support available to local authorities in the event of a localised lock-down and how it will work with local authorities to support local businesses.
Government Response Summary
The government provided a general update on national support packages, including the extension of the CJRS and various loan schemes, following new national restrictions. However, it did not specifically set out a public document on support available to local authorities in localised lockdowns or explain how it would work with them.
HM Treasury
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22
Conclusion
Not Addressed
Para 170
It is too simplistic to say that a compulsory lockdown is a trade-off between the...
Conclusion
It is too simplistic to say that a compulsory lockdown is a trade-off between the people’s health and the economy. The very presence of the virus, and how people respond to it regardless of what the Government mandates, has an …
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Government Response Summary
The government response details its general economic support package during the pandemic, including extensions to the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and loan schemes, but does not engage with the committee's nuanced observation on the trade-offs and impacts of lockdowns.
HM Treasury
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23
Recommendation
Not Addressed
Para 171
When it imposes and removes social restrictions, the Government needs to be as clear as...
Recommendation
When it imposes and removes social restrictions, the Government needs to be as clear as possible that a) there are harms in restrictions and there is a trade-off between these harms and the harms of the virus spreading; and b) …
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Government Response Summary
The government response details its general economic support measures, including extensions to the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and business loan schemes, but does not address the recommendation about being clearer on the harms and trade-offs of social restrictions and how decisions are balanced.
HM Treasury
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24
Conclusion
Not Addressed
Para 176
It is notable that the synchronisation of the OBR’s analysis and the Government’s announcements appears...
Conclusion
It is notable that the synchronisation of the OBR’s analysis and the Government’s announcements appears to have been challenged in the crisis. The OBR scenario analysis undertaken in the Fiscal Sustainability Report did not include the Government’s measures in its …
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Government Response Summary
The government's response did not address the committee's observation regarding the synchronisation challenges between OBR analysis and government announcements during the crisis. Instead, it discussed the OBR's mandate and the risks of expanding its responsibilities.
HM Treasury
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25
Recommendation
Acknowledged
Para 177
We suggest that by the next fiscal event the Treasury clarifies its relationship with the...
Recommendation
We suggest that by the next fiscal event the Treasury clarifies its relationship with the OBR, in particular what the process is for declaring a Treasury announcement to be a fiscal event requiring an OBR economic and fiscal forecast.
Government Response Summary
The government acknowledged the recommendation, describing the existing independent role of the OBR in forecasting and their joint macroeconomic model, but did not commit to new clarification on the process for declaring a fiscal event.
HM Treasury
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26
Recommendation
Rejected
Para 178
The Treasury’s macroeconomic forecasting ability appears to have eroded since the formation of the OBR.
Recommendation
The Treasury’s macroeconomic forecasting ability appears to have eroded since the formation of the OBR. The Treasury needs to maintain sufficient forecasting capacity outside the OBR so that it can ensure that it can adapt policy responses rapidly to an …
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Government Response Summary
The government rejected the recommendation, stating that the Treasury does not produce its own macroeconomic forecasts and instead relies on independent forecasts from the OBR, Bank of England, ONS data, and external sources for policy advice.
HM Treasury
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27
Conclusion
Acknowledged
We are concerned about the implications of the pandemic for insurance, given that businesses will...
Conclusion
We are concerned about the implications of the pandemic for insurance, given that businesses will need the confidence that insurance cover provides if they are to resume normal activities. (Paragraph 184) 58 Economic impact of coronavirus: the challenges of recovery
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Government Response Summary
The government acknowledged concerns about pandemic insurance cover, stating HM Treasury is working closely with insurers, trade bodies, and regulators to understand how the sector can help businesses and to learn lessons for potential future pandemics, while monitoring solvency.
HM Treasury
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28
Recommendation
Accepted
Para 185
The Treasury should consider whether Government intervention is required to support the insurance industry in...
Recommendation
The Treasury should consider whether Government intervention is required to support the insurance industry in finding a solution for pandemic insurance cover; and whether such support would be an effective use of public money. We also recommend that the Treasury …
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Government Response Summary
The Treasury is actively working with insurers and regulators to understand future pandemic insurance needs and to learn lessons. It also remains in close contact with the Prudential Regulation Authority to monitor the solvency of the insurance sector and will take all necessary steps to maintain financial stability following the test case judgment.
HM Treasury
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29
Recommendation
Para 189
The Government must be willing to be flexible, even on manifesto commitments, in response to...
Recommendation
The Government must be willing to be flexible, even on manifesto commitments, in response to the crisis. Lifting the Triple Lock on pensions next year is a sensible proposal and should be carefully considered.
HM Treasury
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30
Recommendation
Acknowledged
One of the clear strengths of the Treasury’s response in the initial stages of the...
Recommendation
One of the clear strengths of the Treasury’s response in the initial stages of the crisis has been its willingness to listen and adjust its policies in response to feedback. However, we are disappointed in its refusal to implement recommendations …
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Government Response Summary
The government states it remains alert and ready to adapt its approach, continuing to monitor trends and ensuring its economic response evolves to provide necessary support, aligning with the call for continued flexibility.
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