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Despite the importance of uncertainty analysis, model producers do not routinely assess or communicate to...

Recommendation
Despite the importance of uncertainty analysis, model producers do not routinely assess or communicate to users the uncertainty in their models. There is limited evidence of departments using uncertainty analysis or developing contingency plans, and departments generally present outputs as single estimates.64 Analysis of uncertainty can give clarity on the reliability of the assumptions and the data used in the model. The Analysis Function told us proper reporting of uncertainty is essential and that the function can provide departments with expert support on understanding uncertainty in complex models. It is raising the profile of the importance of uncertainty analysis for senior civil servants and ministers through its data masterclasses.65 The Finance Function told us it intends to upskill and support finance professions in raising standards, including in relation to estimating financial uncertainty.66
Government Response

A response document is linked to this report, dated 2 September 2022. Response attribution to this conclusion has not been verified. Read the response document.

Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 4.3 yrs
Report published 27 May 2022