8 Accepted in Part

The C&AG’s Report included two plausible scenarios under which the waiting list will be even...

Conclusion
The C&AG’s Report included two plausible scenarios under which the waiting list will be even longer in 2025 than it was in 2021. One of these scenarios assumed that the NHS would achieve the 30% increase in activity that is now the government’s stated aim. We asked why more could not be done with the additional £8 billion of funding for elective recovery from 2022–23 to 2024–25.17 NHSE&I said there was significant uncertainty about the exact size of the future waiting list due to uncertainty over the rate at which missing referrals returned to seek care and the ongoing impact of COVID-19.18 However, it told us that in its judgement it would be very hard to reduce the size of the overall waiting list by 2025. It explained that it was more confident about reducing the number of very long waiters.19
Government Response Summary
The government agreed with the committee's observation, acknowledging that the overall NHS waiting list is likely to worsen before improving and pointing to the existing Elective Recovery Plan. It further committed to working with NHSE&I and stakeholders to develop future funding proposals for the next Spending Review settlement.
Government Response
Accepted in Part
HM Government Accepted in Part
6.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: Spring 2023 6.2 The government has been clear that the overall NHS waiting list is likely to worsen prior to improvements and service recovery. 6.3 As set out in the response to recommendation 2, NHS England also published the Elective Recovery Plan in February 2022. This plan sets out a clear vision for how the NHS will recover and expand elective and cancer services over the next three years, and what patients can expect. There are also clear goals and objectives set on prioritisation within the Recovery Plan. This allows better understanding of future demand, with further updates to be provided later in the year. 6.4 All of the above however, is subject to demand and capacity levels similar to pre-covid, whilst also maintaining low levels of Covid across the NHS. 6.5 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: Autumn 2024 6.6 The Elective Recovery Plan sets out goals for this Spending Review period to use the current funding settlement to maximise elective performance. 6.7 However, as referenced in the response to recommendation 2, there remains both short-term and long-term uncertainty around capacity and demand because of the pandemic and its impact. Ahead of the next Spending Review settlement process, the department will work closely with NHSE&I and other stakeholders to develop funding proposals for the next SR period to be submitted to HM Treasury, using the latest data available at the time.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 4.4 yrs
Report published 16 Mar 2022