27
Deferred
HMRC's offshore tax gap estimate is partial, understating significant non-compliance risks.
Conclusion
We asked HMRC about its confidence in the accuracy of these estimates, observing specifically that the offshore tax gap seems low given that UK taxpayers held £849 billion in foreign accounts in 2019 and reportedly £570 billion in tax havens. HMRC told us that the wealthy and offshore tax gaps are particularly difficult to measure. It said it aims to be as comprehensive as possible and look across all tax types and behaviours in producing and refining estimates but there are inherent challenges.50 HMRC was clear that its estimate of the offshore tax gap is just a partial estimate and does not represent the totality of the offshore tax gap.51 It told us that it wants to expand the coverage and availability of the data to improve the quality of the estimate. Internally, HMRC has identified a much larger amount at risk from all forms of offshore non-compliance. We welcome the Permanent Secretary’s willingness to engage further with us on plans to improve transparency and the accuracy of the tax gap estimates.52 48 Qq 38, 119 49 C&AG’s Report, paras 2.2, 2.20 50 Qq 80-83, 110-111 51 Qq 113-114 52 Q 116 17
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the item and states HMRC is scoping work to better understand the contribution of wealthy individuals to the tax gap, reviewing current estimates, and will provide an update on progress by Autumn 2026.
Government Response
Deferred
Government Response
Deferred
HM Government
Deferred
6.3 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: Autumn 2026 6.4 HMRC recognises the importance of understanding the contribution of the wealthiest individuals to the overall tax gap and is committed to improving its tax gap estimates. Understanding the tax risks linked with wealthy individuals presents challenges, given the complexity of their tax affairs, which may present additional opportunities for non-compliance. 6.5 As part of its ongoing analytical work, HMRC is scoping work to better understand the contribution of wealthy individuals and the entities they control to the overall tax gap. This will involve reviewing the scope of current estimates to determine whether and how the contribution of wealthy individuals and their controlled entities can be more accurately captured. 6.6 HMRC will write to the Committee in Autumn 2026 updating on its progress in improving the estimate of the wealthy tax gap.
Source
Committee
Public Accounts Committee
Report
40th Report - Collecting the right tax from wealthy individuals
16 Jul 2025
HC 827
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age
1.0 yr
Report published
16 Jul 2025