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West Coast Main Line capacity challenge expected by late 2030s due to HS2 changes

Conclusion
The Department acknowledged the capacity challenge on the West Coast Main Line as a consequence of not building Phase 2, estimating that it will reach capacity by the late 2030s. These capacity concerns were also raised with us in evidence from Manchester City Council, Transport for Greater Manchester and the High Speed Rail Group.75 The Department 69 Qq 56–57; Prime Minister’s Office, The King’s Speech 2024, pages 42–43 70 C&AG’s Report, para 2.16 71 Qq 54–57; C&AG’s Report, Fig 2 72 Ibid 73 C&AG’s Report, para 4.20 74 C&AG’s Report, para 4.21 75 HS2U0007, Written evidence submitted by Manchester City Council; HS2U0009, Written evidence submitted by Transport for Greater Manchester; HS2U0005, Written evidence submitted by the High Speed Rail Group 23 told us that the government is considering what options exist for dealing with capacity north of Birmingham in future years. While there would not be a reinstatement of the northern sections of HS2, the Department said these options could include smaller–scale investments in infrastructure or optimising services using both existing and HS2 trains, although the latter would only delay the problem rather than resolve it.76
Government Response

A response document is linked to this report, dated 16 May 2025. Response attribution to this conclusion has not been verified. Read the response document.

Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 1.5 yrs
Report published 28 Feb 2025