7 Rejected

HMRC's tax gap estimates remain uncertain and not broken down by industrial sector.

Conclusion
HMRC told us that the tax gap measure is its best estimate with the data available to it. It acknowledged that its estimates for behaviours, including evasion, are uncertain.10 HMRC explained that it revises its estimates in subsequent years, for example when data from external sources is updated or it settles inquiries with taxpayers.11 In 2020, the previous Public Accounts Committee recommended that HMRC analyse the tax gaps for each industrial sector.12 HMRC disagreed, saying that it did not collect data which would allow it to produce reliable estimates and to do so would increase the burden on taxpayers.13 HMRC maintained this position when we asked why it continues to not monitor the tax gap by sector.14 6 C&AG’s Report, para 3 7 C&AG’s Report, para 2 8 Measuring tax gaps 2024 edition: tax gap estimates for 2022 to 2023 – GOV.UK 9 C&AG’s Report, para 1.4 10 Q 13 11 Q 14 12 Committee of Public Accounts, Tackling the tax gap, Twentieth Report of Session 2019– 2021, HC 650, October 2020 13 HM Treasury, Government responses to the Committee of Public Accounts on the Eighteenth and the Twentieth to the Twenty–Fourth reports from Session 2019–2021, Treasury Minutes, CP 363, January 2021 14 Q 27 9
Government Response Summary
The government states it agrees with the committee but explicitly reiterates that it does not set specific targets for the tax gap by sector, directly contradicting the committee's observation regarding HMRC's long-standing position on this issue.
Government Response
Rejected
HM Government Rejected
The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: Autumn 2025 HMRC has set out below the department’s aims for tackling deliberate non-compliance and evasion. Deliberate non-compliance and evasion covers a range of activity including deliberately submitting false tax returns, falsely claiming repayments or reliefs, hiding income, gains or wealth offshore, and smuggling taxable goods. HMRC’s strategic approach to managing all compliance risks is preventing non- compliance from occurring, promoting good compliance by educating and supporting customers in their tax affairs, and responding to non-compliance. Closing the tax gap is one of three ministerial priorities for HMRC, and in the last Budget, the government announced an ambitious package to close the tax gap, raising £6.5 billion in additional tax revenue per year by 2029-30. HMRC is committed to achieving an effective control environment which reduces rates of error, evasion and fraud but does not set specific targets for the different non-compliance behaviours or specific sectors. HMRC’s approach to this in respect of evasion is described in the response to recommendation 2b. The government is increasing HMRC’s budget by £762 million for 2025-26 to boost compliance and customer service capacity. This includes investing in HMRC IT systems, making better use of data and raising the standards of tax practitioners, as well as continuing the recruitment of an additional 5,000 compliance staff. At Spring Statement 2025, the government also announced £100 million in new funding for HMRC to recruit a further 500 compliance officers from April 2025. When Phase 2 of the Spending Review is confirmed later this year, HMRC will be able to provide more certainty on its 5-year plans.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 1.5 yrs
Report published 12 Feb 2025