The Environment Agency is forecasting that it will provide protection for at least 40% fewer properties than planned. When the programme was launched in 2020, the government committed to provide better protection for 336,000 properties by 2027 by investing £5.2 billion in new flood defence projects. The programme got off to a slow start and the Agency has now reduced its forecast for the number of properties that will be better protected by the end of the programme to 200,000. While inflation has been a major factor, the bureaucracy associated with approving projects, particularly for the increased number of small projects, seems to be another significant factor, and this could affect the viability of schemes in smaller rural communities. Defra is yet to complete a formal reset of the programme, and the Committee is concerned that the number of properties protected could turn out to be even fewer than 200,000. The programme’s success relies on local authorities and other risk management authorities, and also on completion of many large projects where the Agency has only medium or low confidence of delivering by 2027. Recommendation 2: a) In the Treasury Minute response to this report, the Agency should include a robust forecast of the number of properties that will be better protected under the current capital programme by 2027, including how many properties in rural communities, taking into account all the risks that have been identified. It should also set out the best and worst case scenarios for these figures. 6 Resilience to fooding b) In the Treasury Minute response, Defra and the Agency should also set out what further changes are under consideration to make it easier to get smaller projects approved.