The Agency’s current forecast is that these 1,500 projects will provide better protection to 200,000 properties by the end of the programme, a reduction of 40% on the original commitment of 336,000. Defra is yet to agree with HM Treasury the formal reset of the programme and there are factors which could reduce the forecast further:38 a) To reach the forecast of 200,000 properties better protected, the Agency will rely on projects for which it has low or medium confidence of delivering.39 b) The Agency told us that its larger projects (those more than £10 million) are harder to deliver: they need larger teams; tend to be more controversial; take longer to get planning consent; or can be subject to more changes in the scheme design. Around half complete more than two years late and a similar proportion cost at least 25% more than expected.40 c) More than 50% of projects in the capital programme are to be delivered by other risk management authorities such as local authorities. The Agency considered these projects are riskier because delivery is less within its direct control.41 d) Due to the deferment of the underspend in the first two years of the programme, and with investment already at record levels, EA will need to invest an average of almost £1 billion for each of the remaining four years of the programme.42 e) More of the schemes in this capital programme are small compared to the previous programme: 1,200 of the 1,500 projects will cost less than £3 million yet these have to go through the same steps as all other projects. The Agency is looking at how it can streamline processes such as business case approvals for smaller schemes.43 35 Q 27 36 Q 19; C&AG’s Report, para 17 37 Q 25; C&AG’s Report, para 2.4–2.5 38 Q 27 39 C&AG’s Report, para 16 40 Qq 33–34 41 C&AG’s Report, para 2.30 42 Q 36; C&AG’s Report, para 21 43 Qq 20, 36 14 Resilience to fooding Funding distribution