We have previously found that the DWP lacks the ability to demonstrate that its counter-fraud activities are having the intended impact and are cost-effective.22 Alongside its forecast that benefit overpayments will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2027– 28, DWP has set a target to achieve £1.3 billion of fraud and error savings in 2023–24. It has also published a new estimate of the amounts saved by its counter-fraud activities23. 15 Q 100 16 Q 14 17 DWP ARA 2022–23, page 300 18 Q 13 19 Q 98 20 Q 99 21 Correspondence from HMRC dated 28 September 2023 22 Committee of Public Accounts, The Department for Work and Pensions’ Accounts 2021–22 – Fraud and error in the benefit system, Twenty-Sixth Report of Session 2022–23, HC 44, 9 November 2022 23 DWP ARA 2022–23, pages 302, 303 12 The Department for Work & Pensions Annual Report and Accounts 2022–23 The NAO has reported that, taken together, DWP’s forecast, target and savings estimate should improve accountability by providing transparency on its performance in tackling fraud and error.24 24 DWP ARA 2022–23, page 274 The Department for Work & Pensions Annual Report and Accounts 2022–23 13 2 Systemic underpayments of State Pension Progress correcting underpayments relating to historical error by DWP staff