15th Report - Prison estate capacity

Select Committee
Public Accounts Committee HC 366 14 March 2025
Report Status Government responded
Conclusions & Recommendations 28 items (9 recs)
Source View on Parliament website
Government Response (AI assessment · 27 of 28 classified)
Accepted 18
Acknowledged 1
Deferred 5
Not Addressed 1
Rejected 2
Government response
Treasury minutes: Government response to the Committee of Public Accounts on the Fifteenth report from Session 2024-25 · published 16 May 2025
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Recommendations & Conclusions

28 results
2 Conclusion Accepted
Outline realistic plans for delivering 14,000 prison places, managing risks and gaining permission.
Conclusion
MoJ’s and HMPPS’s plans to deliver the remaining 14,000 places by 2031 are still fraught with risk and uncertainty. MoJ and HMPPS acknowledge that they have not delivered prison places on time. We accept that they faced several challenges expanding … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government agrees and outlined specific processes for assuring the realism of plans, including Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis and various monitoring forums. It also detailed plans to secure planning permission via the Crown Development Route (expected spring 2025) and develop a strategic approach to Nutrient Neutrality.
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3 Conclusion Accepted
Produce business case to rapidly address prison estate maintenance backlog and re-tender contracts.
Conclusion
Despite releasing thousands of prisoners early, MoJ forecasts it will run out of capacity again in early 2026. According to its central prison population forecast, MoJ will run out of places again in 2026, and be short of 5,400 prison … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government agrees and commits that HMPPS will provide an update within two months of the Sentencing Review's next phase (spring 2025), detailing the impact on prison place shortage and mitigation, and reporting on the maintenance backlog, including fire safety improvements.
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4 Recommendation Accepted
Set out methodology to estimate Criminal Justice System costs due to prison capacity pressures.
Recommendation
The prison capacity crisis has led to decisions and inefficiencies which represent poor value for money. Maintaining and making best use of the existing prison estate represents better value than building new places. However, capacity constraints mean that MoJ and … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government states the recommendation is implemented, explaining that it already estimates Criminal Justice System costs due to prison capacity pressures through internal forecasting and modelling, and publicly released a 10-year capacity strategy on 11 December 2024 which included cost estimates.
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5 Recommendation Acknowledged
Set out evaluation of prison capacity pressures on safety, violence, and access to services.
Recommendation
The prison capacity crisis risks undermining the safety and security of prisons and reduces HMPPS’s ability to rehabilitate offenders. Due to MoJ’s and HMPPS’s failure to deliver additional prison capacity, the adult male prison estate was operating at 98.0% to … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government agrees, stating that prisons are mandated to set planned delivery focusing on purposeful activity, and governors are held accountable. It notes a substantial evaluation programme is underway for reoffending outcomes but does not specifically detail how the impact of capacity pressures on the requested key areas will be evaluated.
HM Treasury
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6 Conclusion Accepted
Submit plan to improve rehabilitation, increase probation capacity, and reduce reoffending rates.
Conclusion
MoJ’s and HMPPS’s main focus has been on managing the capacity crisis rather than rehabilitating offenders to reduce reoffending. In 2020, the previous Public Accounts Committee reported that HMPPS was operating hand to mouth by reacting to immediate crises. This … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government agrees to provide an update to the Committee after the Independent Sentence Review publishes its final report, outlining its plans to improve the rehabilitative environment, implications for probation and community support, and how impacts will be monitored and evaluated.
HM Treasury
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1 Conclusion Accepted
Progress in expanding the prison estate examined by the Committee.
Conclusion
On the basis of a report by the Comptroller and Auditor General, we took evidence from the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) on their progress in expanding the prison estate.1
Government Response Summary
The government agreed with what it perceived as the committee's recommendation, committing to actively adapting processes for the 20,000 prison place programmes, capturing lessons learned quarterly, and reviewing its Lessons Learned Strategy bi-annually, with the next review in October 2025.
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7 Conclusion Accepted
Ministry of Justice's new prison delivery plans were over-ambitious and unrealistic
Conclusion
In 2021, MoJ had planned to deliver three of its new prisons by 2026, despite having no planning permission in place.18 It also told us it factored in just 26 weeks to gain approvals, even though sites were not earmarked … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government states the recommendation was implemented in April 2025 and refers to the re-baselining exercise, monthly monitoring meetings, and the use of the Crown Development Route for planning permission.
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8 Conclusion Accepted
Rapid Deployment Cell costs significantly increased due to design changes and unforeseen site issues
Conclusion
We asked HMPPS why the costs of its Rapid Deployment Cells (RDCs) had risen so significantly.25 HMPPS said that increases were due to three factors: design changes as it developed its understanding of what was needed; site–specific costs due to … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government states the recommendation was implemented in April 2025 and refers to the re-baselining exercise, monthly monitoring meetings, and the use of the Crown Development Route for planning permission.
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9 Recommendation Accepted
Ministry of Justice's 10-year strategy plans 14,000 new prison places by 2031
Recommendation
In December 2024, MoJ published its 10–year capacity strategy which set out its plans to deliver the remaining 14,000 prison places by 2031.29 The majority of the remaining places will come from four new prisons (6,500) and additional houseblocks (6,400), … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government states the recommendation was implemented in April 2025 and refers to the re-baselining exercise, monthly monitoring meetings, and the use of the Crown Development Route for planning permission.
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10 Conclusion Accepted
HMPPS lacks absolute assurance to meet revised prison delivery deadlines due to higher risks
Conclusion
We asked HMPPS whether it was certain that it could meet the revised deadline.32 HMPPS told us that while it could not give absolute assurance that it would deliver to schedule, it had built contingency into its timelines to allow … Read more
Government Response Summary
The 20,000 prison place programmes undertook a robust re-baselining exercise between December 2023 and December 2024 using Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis alongside Reference Class Forecasting methodology.
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11 Conclusion Accepted
Planning permission for Garth prison faces judicial review; HMPPS seeks centralised approvals
Conclusion
HMPPS also acknowledged that while 95% of the remaining places had outline planning permission, permission for one of its new prisons, Garth, is currently under judicial review.35 MoJ and HMPPS explained that they are relying on proposed policy changes to … Read more
Government Response Summary
The MoJ and HMPPS will seek to secure planning permission through the Crown Development Route, expected to come into force in spring 2025 where appropriate, and notes the revised National Planning Policy Framework places significant weight on new public service infrastructure.
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12 Conclusion Accepted
Contractor ISG's collapse impacts 3,500 prison places and ongoing maintenance projects
Conclusion
HMPPS explained that the collapse of ISG, one of its main contractors which entered administration in September 2024, had been challenging, but that expected delays were already factored into its revised timelines.37 However, it noted that this was based on … Read more
Government Response Summary
The 20,000 prison place programmes undertook a robust re-baselining exercise between December 2023 and December 2024 using Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis alongside Reference Class Forecasting methodology.
HM Treasury
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13 Conclusion Not Addressed
Ministry of Justice projects significant prison capacity shortfall by early 2026
Conclusion
According to its December 2024 statement on prison capacity, in its central forecast MoJ will run out of capacity again by early 2026 and will be 5,400 places short by November 2027.40 This is lower than the 12,400 places shortfall … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government disagrees with the Committee’s recommendation and states HMPPS acknowledges the importance of addressing the prison estate maintenance backlog, with future investment decisions depending on the outcome of the ongoing Spending Review round.
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14 Recommendation Deferred
Ministry of Justice relies on independent sentencing review to manage future prison capacity
Recommendation
MoJ confirmed that it is relying on the Government’s response to the sentencing review to help it manage the expected gap between capacity and demand.46 Given its forecasts suggest it could run out of places again in early 2026, we … Read more
Government Response Summary
HMPPS will provide an update within two months of the publication of the next phase of the Sentencing Review in spring 2025, detailing the impact on the forecast prison place shortage and any further mitigation required, as well as reporting on the maintenance backlog.
HM Treasury
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15 Conclusion Rejected
HMPPS unable to meet 2027 fire-safety compliance deadline for 23,000 prison places
Conclusion
The NAO report highlighted several risks to existing prison capacity. This included that around a quarter (23,000) of occupied prison places are at risk of enforcement by the Crown Premises Fire Safety Inspectorate 38 Q 43 39 Qq 43,46 40 … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government disagrees with the Committee’s recommendation and acknowledges the importance of addressing the prison estate maintenance backlog and remains committed to undertaking the necessary work to ensure compliance with fire safety standards.
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16 Conclusion Rejected
HMPPS faces £1.8 billion maintenance backlog with insufficient funding to address it
Conclusion
The condition of the estate also poses a risk to future capacity. Since the government’s 2010 prisons strategy, HMPPS has indefinitely closed 4,151 cells due to dilapidation.54 Furthermore, HMPPS’s maintenance backlog has doubled from £0.9 billion to £1.8 billion between … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government disagrees with the committee's conclusion and states that while HMPPS acknowledges the importance of addressing the prison estate maintenance backlog, future investment decisions will depend on the outcome of the ongoing Spending Review.
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17 Recommendation Deferred
Probation services already operating at 102% capacity, unable to absorb additional workload
Recommendation
HMPPS told us that probation officers and probation services officers were already dealing with a workload equivalent to 102% of capacity.60 We raised the potential impact on probation services if the sentencing review recommends alternatives to custody, possibly requiring more … Read more
Government Response Summary
HMPPS will provide an update within two months of the publication of the next phase of the Sentencing Review in spring 2025, detailing the impact on the forecast prison place shortage and any further mitigation required, as well as reporting on the maintenance backlog.
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18 Conclusion Accepted
Ministry of Justice has not assessed additional costs incurred for urgent prison place delivery
Conclusion
We asked MoJ if it has assessed the costs of needing to deliver prison places so urgently, such as paying contractors more to take on a higher level of risk.62 MoJ said it had not and indicated this could be … Read more
Government Response Summary
The MoJ estimated costs to the Criminal Justice System through internal forecasting and modelling processes, including the additional costs as a result of the acute issues in responding to prison capacity. The MoJ will continue to monitor these costs and amend estimates where necessary.
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19 Conclusion
HMPPS extended Dartmoor lease despite radon, requiring further investment for reopening
Conclusion
To help with capacity pressures, HMPPS recently extended its lease for HMP Dartmoor by 25 years, starting in 2023–24, despite the detection of radon gas in 2020. It closed the prison temporarily in July 2024, following the detection of high … Read more
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20 Conclusion Accepted
Ninety-nine percent prison occupancy creates significant inefficiencies across the justice system
Conclusion
HMPPS told us that operating at 99% occupancy creates inefficiencies in the estate and wider justice system. For example, it explained that prisoners often arrive in the wrong part of the estate or wrong part of the country. This means … Read more
Government Response Summary
HMPPS recognises the challenges that capacity pressures have on providing a safe environment. They have evaluated the impact of prisoners living in overcrowded prison cell conditions and monitor safety data and prison performance.
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21 Conclusion Accepted
Severe overcrowding in adult male prisons increases violence and reduces prisoner wellbeing
Conclusion
The adult male estate was operating at 98.0% to 99.7% occupancy between October 2022 and August 2024, with many prisons severely overcrowded.71 HMPPS confirmed that around a quarter (23.6%) of prisoners are sharing cells designed for one person, often with … Read more
Government Response Summary
HMPPS recognises the challenges that capacity pressures have on providing a safe environment. They have evaluated the impact of prisoners living in overcrowded prison cell conditions and monitor safety data and prison performance.
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22 Conclusion Accepted
HMPPS maintains safety 'red lines' during overcrowding, acknowledging continued challenges
Conclusion
We asked HMPPS what it was doing to keep prisoners safe in the context of prisons being so overcrowded.75 It explained that it had introduced three “red lines” which it had stuck to rigidly. These included: keeping at least 1,500 … Read more
Government Response Summary
HMPPS recognises the challenges that capacity pressures have on providing a safe environment. They have evaluated the impact of prisoners living in overcrowded prison cell conditions and monitor safety data and prison performance.
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23 Conclusion Accepted
Crowding and capacity pressures severely impact prisoner health and drug treatment in prisons
Conclusion
Several stakeholders provided written evidence on how crowding and capacity pressures are impacting health and drug treatment in prisons.78 For example, HM Inspectorate of Prisons (HMIP) noted that the strain at some reception prisons are under means that prisoners do … Read more
Government Response Summary
Action is underway to improve delivery through the national regime model which mandates prisons to set out their planned delivery, against the agreed national priorities which for 2025-26 specifically asks prisons to focus on increasing the quantity and quality of purposeful and rehabilitative activity. A substantial evaluation programme is underway.
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24 Recommendation Deferred
Overcrowding negatively impacts prison education and pre-release services, hindering reintegration efforts
Recommendation
We also received evidence on how the crisis has impacted education and pre–release services. For example, the Prisoners’ Education Trust told us that overcrowding means education departments in prisons are unlikely to have the capacity needed, and prisoners are more … Read more
Government Response Summary
The MoJ will provide an update to the Committee on plans to improve the rehabilitative environment in prisons, the implications for probation and community support, and how the impact of changes will be monitored and evaluated, two months after the Independent Sentence Review publishes its final report.
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25 Recommendation Accepted
Operating prisons at full capacity negatively impacts regimes, prisoners, and victims of crime
Recommendation
We asked MoJ what it had done to understand the impact of the crisis on prisoners and prisoner outcomes.82 MoJ said that the fact it had managed to continue running such a full estate was a testament to the huge … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government has mandated prisons to set out planned delivery against agreed national priorities, including increasing the quantity and quality of purposeful and rehabilitative activity, and is implementing a substantial evaluation programme to understand the impact of initiatives and programmes on reoffending outcomes.
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26 Recommendation Accepted
MoJ projects continued prison crowding, impacting resettlement activity and rehabilitation outcomes
Recommendation
According to MoJ’s most recent estimate, reoffending in England and Wales costs society approximately £18 billion a year (2017–2018 prices).84 Given MoJ’s and HMPPS’s acknowledgement that crowding impacts prison regimes and can reduce access to purposeful activity and harm rehabilitation, … Read more
Government Response Summary
Action is underway to improve delivery through the national regime model, which mandates prisons to set out their planned delivery against the agreed national priorities and a substantial evaluation programme is underway to understand the impact of initiatives and programmes on reoffending outcomes.
HM Treasury
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27 Conclusion Deferred
Prison capacity crisis significantly strains probation services, exacerbating staffing shortages and rising demand
Conclusion
MoJ and HMPPS told us that the impact of the prison capacity crisis on probation is “significant” and “rising” with pressures likely to increase further if Ministers make decisions to decrease the prison population.88 In September 2024, HMPPS had 5,413 … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government will provide an update to the Committee two months after the Independent Sentence Review publishes its final report on plans to improve the rehabilitative environment in prisons, the implications for probation and community support, and how the impact of changes will be monitored and evaluated.
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28 Recommendation Deferred
Probation Service faces severe strain, requiring prioritisation if offender volumes increase
Recommendation
MoJ assured us that it models the impact of any demand and supply measures on staffing levels and has governance structures in place to ensure the system can cope with proposed changes.93 However, HMPPS 84 Ministry of Justice, Economic and … Read more
Government Response Summary
The government will provide an update to the Committee two months after the Independent Sentence Review publishes its final report on plans to improve the rehabilitative environment in prisons, the implications for probation and community support, and how the impact of changes will be monitored and evaluated.
HM Treasury
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