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Transparency in the evidence behind Government decisions enables higher quality decision-making through scrutiny, and better...
Conclusion
Transparency in the evidence behind Government decisions enables higher quality decision-making through scrutiny, and better understanding of the reasons for those decisions. While calls for the publication of SAGE evidence from this Committee and many others were eventually heeded, it is regrettable that a significant amount of time passed before a regular publication rhythm was established. However, we acknowledge that in emergencies, where evidence is subject to great uncertainty, careful thought must be given to the way information is communicated and presented, given the context at the time. During those crucial early weeks of the pandemic—in which important decisions were made by the Government—public understanding and scrutiny was hampered by a lack of transparency. For example, when details of the 16 March Imperial College report were made public, it was not known what other evidence was being considered by SAGE and the Government. It is regrettable that a repeat of this scenario occurred on 31 October, ahead of the The UK response to covid-19: use of scientific advice 77 second national lockdown in England, where there was a delay in publishing the data behind the modelling used by SAGE. Presenting a graph to the public including a scenario of 4,000 deaths per day—based on out-of-date information and without a clearly marked source—risked, as indicated by the Office for Statistics Regulation, causing public confusion and undermining confidence in the statistics, and in our view, causing public alarm beyond what was justified. We agree with the assessment of the Office for Statistics Regulation and urge the Government and its advisers to ensure that analysis selected for public presentation meets high standards of rigour and relevance.
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Government Response
Acknowledged
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government
Acknowledged
The Government is keen to better understand the wider health impacts9 of the Covid- 19 pandemic as identified by the Chief Medical Officer. These health impacts may relate to mortality, in terms of excess deaths, or morbidity, in terms of effects on health more generally. Relevant papers have been published by both SAGE and ONS on this matter, produced by DHSC, the Home Office, and the Government Actuary’s Department. The first SAGE paper on this matter, published in June 2020, presented initial estimates of excess deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic.10 The second, published in 8 The health, economic and social effects of COVID-19 and the tiered approach - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) 9 There are four forms of health impacts9 identified by the CMO that might occur as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic: Health impacts from contracting Covid-19, Health outcomes for Covid-19 worsened because of lack of NHS critical care capacity, Health impacts from changes to health and social care made in order to respond to Covid-19, and Health impacts from factors affecting the wider population, both from living through the pandemic and the economic impacts increasing deprivation. 10 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/initial-estimates-of-excess-deaths-from-covid-19-8-april-2020 August 2020, captured both mortality and morbidity impacts.11 The papers have also been used to inform analysis of the health effects of Covid-19 related to the introduction of tiers.12 A third, updated paper, was published in January 2021 and seeks to provide an update with more recent evidence.13 These analyses aim to discuss and quantify, as far as possible, the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on health, using the four forms of health impacts. However, in some cases it is not possible to quantify the health impacts that may occur, and instead, where necessary, qualitative discussion is provided. It is important to note that the analyses use scenarios to consider potential future impacts and are neither projections nor forecasts. On 17 July 2020, the ONS published a report looking at all deaths between 1 March and 30 June 2020 where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate.14 The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Using this information, an underlying cause of death is determined. More information on this process can be found in the supporting user guide.15 In the majority of cases (46,736 deaths, 92.8%) where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, it was found to be the underlying cause of death.
Source
Report
First Report - The UK response to covid-19: use of scientific advice
08 Jan 2021
HC 136
Addressee Bodies
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
Timeline
Recommendation age
5.4 yrs
Report published
08 Jan 2021