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It has been made clear to us that policy decisions throughout the coronavirus pandemic have...

Recommendation
It has been made clear to us that policy decisions throughout the coronavirus pandemic have not been based solely on medical and epidemiological science, but rather have been developed with a wide range of inputs that include scientific research and opinion. Nevertheless, as indicated by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, while the scientific analysis informing the Government’s interventions has enjoyed a great level of public exposure, the analysis and advice outside of SAGE (including economic and social considerations) have been “less visible”. It is disappointing that the Treasury had “not done a specific prediction or forecast of the restrictions” implemented, or those not pursued, but rather provided an “ongoing analysis” of economic factors, despite SAGE indicating that social and economic impacts should factor into such decisions. It is understandable that that these analyses are subject to significant uncertainty, however by analogy the epidemiological modelling published by SAGE, too, is uncertain and should not to be interpreted as a strict predictor of what will happen. The Government should, as a matter of urgency, publish the advice it has received on the potential indirect covid-19 impacts (e.g. economic, social and other health impacts) of the interventions it has undertaken, alongside the evidence base for that advice and should continue to commission such research.
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Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government Acknowledged
The CO will work with GO-Science to evolve SAGE guidance, in order to learn from and build on the lessons and positive developments regarding transparency over the past 12 months, in light of the response to the pandemic. In the past, advice produced by SAGE would not have been made publicly available until the end of the incident it had been stood up to advise on. Given the protracted 11 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dhsconsgadho-direct-and-indirect-impacts-of-covid-19-on-excess-deaths- and-morbidity-15-july-2020 12https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/944823/Analysis_of _the_health_economic_and_social_effects_of_COVID-19_and_the_approach_to_tiering_FINAL_-_accessible_v2.pdf 13 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dhsconsgadho-direct-and-indirect-impacts-of-covid-19-on-excess-deaths- and-morbidity-december-2020-update-17-december-2020 14 Deaths involving COVID-19, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) 15 User guide to mortality statistics (ons.gov.uk) and unprecedented nature of the current situation, the GCSA recognised the need to be as transparent as possible, as early as possible. In response to the long running nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, SAGE has now been activated for the longest continual period since its inception. Previously, the role of SAGE was to respond to short lived emergencies. SAGE has, as of 23 April 2021, met 87 times since early January 2020, at least once a week, to provide scientific advice on Covid-19. As at 30 April 2021, 684 papers and minutes from SAGE discussions have been released to ensure transparency. More widely than SAGE, the Government is committed to learning from this process to ensure that there are robust procedures in place that are able to provide the best possible scientific advice, both to address short term issues and for the longer term, whilst also maintaining public confidence in that advice. The Government has ensured that a significant amount of data on the state of the pandemic is available publicly. For example, the coronavirus public dashboard is updated daily, with the latest available data on cases, deaths, vaccinations, testing, healthcare and the virus reproduction number ‘R’.16 This includes a postcode tracker so individuals can check the situation in their area. Slides and data from press conferences can be found at GOV.UK and are normally published at the time of the press conference. The data, statistics, and modelling outputs used in public briefings, including any revisions, are published as part of this process. The publication of the Covid-19 Winter Plan (on 23 November 2020) set out the five indicators on which tiering decisions were to be based: case rates; case rates in over 60s; the change in case rates; the positivity rate; and, NHS metrics.17 Metrics on case numbers, cases by age demographics, case positivity and NHS Covid-19 occupancy can all be downloaded on GOV.UK.18 Over time, government investment in foundational skills and capabilities for data and analytics will deliver significant improvements in horizon-scanning and preparedness activities to strengthen resilience to a range of major disruptive events. In addition to this, the creation of a central picture of where there are weaknesses in data holdings will help to identify and prioritise areas for future investment. 16 Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk) 17 COVID-19 Winter Plan - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) 18 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases.
Addressee Bodies
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
Timeline
Recommendation age 5.4 yrs
Report published 08 Jan 2021