1.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 1.2 The reforms set out in SEND Reform: Putting Children and Young People First aim to create a more inclusive school system, enabling more children to succeed in local mainstream settings. As fewer children will need to travel long distances to access appropriate education, home-to-school transport (HTST) costs are expected to reduce over time. 1.3 Estimates of the impact of the reforms are generated by modelling how cohorts of children move through levels of support and provision, drawing on historic national trends, population projections, capacity assumptions and expected policy effects, and are validated against past data using linked education datasets to illustrate system-wide trajectories. Further detail is available in Background on Projections. 1.4 The department expects the growth in Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) to slow through to academic year 2029-30 as investment builds mainstream capacity and supports earlier intervention, including via £3.7 billion of capital investment in state specialist places. From 2029-30, the reformed system will be in place, with embedded early support, year-on-year reductions in the proportion of pupils requiring EHCPs, and around a quarter of specialist provision delivered within mainstream schools by 2035. 1.5 As a result, the rate of growth in national HTST spending is projected to rapidly slow in the period to financial year 2031-32, and thereafter total spending expected to start to fall steadily, year-on-year, as more children can thrive in their local mainstream school. Final projections are subject to policy decisions pending closure of the SEND consultation. 1.6 Meanwhile, the department has introduced a new HTST data collection to support benchmarking and the sharing of good practice; worked with MHCLG on a new funding formula; and will publish new guidance promoting strong partnerships and cost-effective travel. Wider initiatives – including the Bus Services Act 2025, School Streets, Bikeability and investment in active travel – are enabling more children to travel sustainably to school.