9 Acknowledged

We asked the Department whether it could have had any better information or better data...

Conclusion
We asked the Department whether it could have had any better information or better data to predict demand, and it told us that it was keen to learn from its experience of Restart about how to predict demand, and later spoke about how some of its data mining work may be able to help. However on this topic it also acknowledged that Restart has “clearly taught us [the Department] a lesson”.16 Impact of public service failure on the employment support the Department must provide
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the committee's observation, stating the recommendation is implemented. It details lessons learned about designing support during economic uncertainty, including considering broader scenarios, adaptability, and the role of pilots in informing policy.
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government Acknowledged
2.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 2.2 Restart was designed in a very uncertain economic outlook. The economic downturn and sudden unemployment increase in 2020 required a rapid response. A significant expansion of support was put in place at pace, scale, and within a value for money assessment, using market knowledge and the full range of mechanisms available, including expanding existing contracts and letting new ones. 2.3 The department’s contract mechanisms enabled a rapid and effective response to significant changes in volume expectation without compromising service quality or delivery. The department retained value for money and negotiated cost reductions above that which would have otherwise accrued. 2.4 The department learned however that the level of uncertainty should drive consideration of a broader range of scenarios, and how provision can adapt. It learned its assumptions regarding proportions of people that can be suitable for programmes can be inaccurate, and it needed to better understand the basis of its assumptions to inform future provision capacity. The department will do this by implementing the actions set out throughout this Treasury Minute to improve its capabilities, as well as ensuring the department assesses systematically the risks and opportunities associated with contingency planning for future exceptional economic events, for example, the advantages of additional flexibility in contracts and the trade-off with extra costs. 2.5 The department recognises that a responsive model is important because levels of contracted provision vary over time to reflect the level of need linked to the economic cycle and government priorities. That is also true of numbers of work coaches providing support in jobcentres. 4.5 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 4.6 The department agrees it can sometimes do more to test assumptions prior to procurement, for example on suitability, and that pilots and trials can sometimes have a key role in informing policy and delivery alongside evaluation and lessons learned from previous programmes. In determining the right approach, the department needs to assess and balance the risks and opportunities. 4.7 Trialling new or novel approaches can add value but relies on a risk judgement against the time taken to secure the evidence and the likely value of any new insight. For a reasonably sized trial it could take up to two years to complete the design and procurement, gather evidence and subsequently undertake an evaluation to feed into new policy. This often does not align with the need for government to mobilise an urgent response to an economic shock, meaning a proper trial may not be appropriate in all circumstances. 4.8 Quicker testing can be undertaken on, for example, confirmation of take-up assumptions for provision that is similar to existing or previous approaches.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 3.4 yrs
Report published 22 Mar 2023