22 Accepted

The Department forecasts that site disposals in its DEO Portfolio will deliver net savings of...

Conclusion
The Department forecasts that site disposals in its DEO Portfolio will deliver net savings of £0.65 billion by 2040—measured in terms of disposal proceeds and reduced running costs, offset by rehousing costs. The Department emphasised that its estate disposal programme remains value for money. However, since 2016 its forecast benefits have fallen by 73% from £2.4 billion because of higher than expected disposal costs and delays in achieving disposals. The figure of £0.65 billion remains extremely uncertain. The Department’s estimates were based on preliminary studies rather than actual data on costs; additional costs falling to TLBs were excluded; estimates did not include the additional cost of meeting recent sustainability targets; and the risk of cost increases was likely to be underestimated.34
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the committee's observation regarding uncertain forecast benefits and will implement a new Delivery, Commercial and Procurement strategy by Summer 2022. This strategy aims to improve accuracy in project costings and ensure site preparation costs are fully understood and factored into planning.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government Accepted
5.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: Summer 2022 5.2 As with any large portfolio it was initially planned to use the best knowledge and assumptions available at the time. Several factors influenced the reduction in net savings these included 9 significant site retentions (7 in DEO and 2 across the wider estate) which were needed to support military capability and were then not available for disposal. This has reduced the level of savings delivered when compared to the original estimates. As the portfolio estimates mature, the department expects to make net savings of £0.65 billion through DEO disposals over the next 25 years. Gross savings are £2.7 billion in running costs and £2.3 billion of savings expected as a result of reductions in future maintenance and life-cycle replacement costs. 5.3 A new Delivery, Commercial and Procurement strategy will be implemented in Summer 2022 which will deliver key benefits from early engagement with industry using a two-stage procurement mechanism through the design and build phases in line with industry best practice. This strategy will provide the department greater confidence and accuracy in project costings due to the completion of detailed designs and site master plans. 5.4 The department will also work with industry partners and utilise reference class data to ensure the cost of site preparation to support disposals is understood, matured, and factored into project planning and estimating. Progress on this will be provided in the annual update to the Committee.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 4.8 yrs
Report published 12 Oct 2021