MoJ and HMPPS do not know how probation performance affects outcomes such as reoffending. The overall aims of the Probation Service are to protect the public and to reduce reoffending. MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25. HM Inspectorate of Probation’s 2023 research indicates that high-quality probation supervision significantly reduces reoffending. Given the service’s poor performance, it is unsurprising that reoffending outcomes have deteriorated since 2021. The reoffending rate for adults supervised by the Probation Service was 5% higher in 2023 (latest data 3 available) than in 2021, and the number of offenders charged with a Serious Further Offence while under probation was 55% higher in 2023–24 than in 2020–21. Additionally, the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all- time high. Offender outcomes can be influenced by many factors, including whether people leave prison into safe housing and employment. However, at our evidence session in December, HMPPS did not accept that its poor performance in probation was linked to the rise in reoffending. HMPPS is evaluating the impact on recall rates of reduced supervision for most offenders in the last third of their sentence (‘Reset’). It is important that the effect on reoffending and public protection is also examined. recommendation In their Treasury Minute response, MoJ and HMPPS should set out: a. what more they could do to monitor and understand the impact of Probation Service changes on reoffending and recall; and b. when they will be able to share their findings from their evaluation of the ‘Reset’ initiative, including its impact on recall rates.