We are not confident that MoJ and HMPPS can successfully manage the risks associated with the new probation programme. Over an 18-month period, HMPPS’s new programme - Our Future Probation Service - aims to introduce new digital tools, changes to probation processes and changes to the level of supervision for some offenders. Its plans include implementing over 30 digital initiatives to help reduce the time probation staff need to spend on tasks. For example, Transcribe is an AI tool to help staff capture meeting notes. However, there is a risk that constant changes can disrupt services, contribute to poor outcomes and staff stress. While HMPPS plans to implement new digital tools incrementally, the short time- frame carries a high level of risk and MoJ does not have a strong history of implementing digital change programmes well. Additionally, MoJ and HMPPS are still deciding on some of the changes they plan to make to the level of supervision some offenders receive, which may pose risks to public protection. Given these risks, we are very concerned that MoJ and HMPPS have not yet set clear thresholds for the level of risk they are willing to accept, to help monitor operational and public protection risks. recommendation HMPPS should set out, in its Treasury Minute response: a. how it will assess when digital tools are sufficiently developed to roll out to staff; b. its risk thresholds for rolling out digital and process changes/scope changes; and c. how it will monitor if thresholds are breached.