HM Inspectorate of Probation’s 2023 research indicates that high-quality probation supervision by a probation practitioner can significantly improve sentence completion rates and reduce reoffending.23 We asked MoJ about the extent to which poor probation performance has influenced worsening outcomes, including reoffending and recalls. HMPPS told us that that there was no evidence that probation staff were recalling people inappropriately, and the numbers had risen because of “the crisis in prisons”, as more people had been released from prison and were on probation, and probation had a higher-risk caseload. On reoffending it argued that other factors such as housing, employment, drugs treatment are all important. It told us that MoJ and HMPPS have been working with other partners, including the Department for Work and Pensions and businesses on employment support, and had made progress in all these areas. However, despite 20 Qq 2, 16 21 C&AG’s Report, para 1 22 Qq 20, 22; C&AG’s Report, para 1.7 23 C&AG’s Report, para 1.8 11 repeated probing, MoJ and HMPPS did not acknowledge any link between the poor performance of the Probation Service and deteriorating offender outcomes.24