15 Accepted

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury acknowledged in his letter of 1 April 2021 that...

Conclusion
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury acknowledged in his letter of 1 April 2021 that a consequence of an enhanced risk appetite is that risks are more likely to crystalize. A clear example of risks from the government’s approach materialising is the 10,000 shipping containers of personal protective equipment (PPE) ordered earlier in the pandemic that were yet to be unpacked when we took evidence on the matter in May.20 HM Treasury cautioned that the current estimates of the expected cost of the government’s COVID-19 response are snapshots of government’s exposure as of today, rather than assessments of the final bill. For some of government’s actions, for example the business loan schemes, the full extent of financial risks will become apparent over future years.21 HM Treasury told us that it is updating its guidance on undertaking risk assessments during an emergency.22 16 Qq 18, 20, 21; Letter of 1 April 2021 from the Chief Secretary to the Treasury to the Chair of the Treasury Committee 17 Qq 21, 51 18 Q 52 19 Q 20 20 Q 55; Letter of 1 April 2021 from the Chief Secretary to the Treasury to the Chair of the Treasury Committee 21 Q 12 22 Q 40 12 COVID 19: Cost Tracker Update Achieving value for money
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the committee's observation, stating it is already actively managing fiscal risks through its Fiscal Risks Group and the OBR's fiscal risk statements, and has recently launched new frameworks for managing contingent liabilities.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government Accepted
3.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 3.2 The government is already committed to active management of fiscal risks, including risks stemming from its COVID-19 response. HM Treasury surveys these from the centre of government, including through its Fiscal Risks Group (FRG), which reviews the most important fiscal risks and actions being taken to manage them. The FRG sits alongside groups responsible for the oversight and management of risks to the economy, tax, and spending. HM Treasury works directly with other government departments to assess risks to the public finances, in line with the principles set out in HM Treasury’s Orange Book. 3.3 Since 2016, the government has asked the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to publish a fiscal risks statement to improve disclosure and management of fiscal risks. The statement draws on contributions from government and other stakeholders, and has been recognised by the International Monetary Fund and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development as one of the most comprehensive of its kind. The 2021 Fiscal Risks Report included a chapter on risks stemming from COVID-19; the government is committed to respond within 12 months. 3.4 The government set out its spending plans and choices up to 2024-25 in the Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 document. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of ensuring the right capability is in place to manage contingent liabilities in the public sector. The last 12 months have seen the launch of the Contingent Liabilities Approvals Framework and Contingent Liabilities Central Capability and they will provide tools to mitigate and manage contingent liabilities risks before they arise.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 5.0 yrs
Report published 25 Jul 2021