8
Accepted
In September 2020, SAGE concluded that “test and trace was having only a marginal impact...
Conclusion
In September 2020, SAGE concluded that “test and trace was having only a marginal impact on transmission”. NHST&T said that the situation had improved, and highlighted that it was now meeting all its operational performance targets for contact tracing.21 22 It also quoted findings from an “independent verified analysis” which suggested that, NHST&T activities in October 2020, may have contributed to a reduction in the ‘R number’ (the number of other people a person with COVID-19 infects) by 0.3 to 0.6 (18–33% of the estimated ‘R number’ in October).23 However, as set out in the analysis published by NHST&T the biggest part of this estimated impact arises from the assumption that people self-isolate for the period between developing COVID symptoms and receiving their test results, i.e. before even engaging with the test and trace system. NHST&T’s model also suggested that only around 10% of the total reduction in the “R number” could be attributed to NHST&T’s contact tracing activities.24 We are also aware that the interim report on the Liverpool mass testing pilot did not find clear evidence that the pilot reduced positive COVID-19 cases or hospital admissions.25 Managing supply and demand
Government Response Summary
The government accepts the (implied) recommendation, committing to ongoing and enhanced publication of data on test and trace effectiveness and compliance, including ONS publishing monthly self-isolation data and plans to periodically publish R number estimates by June 2021.
Government Response
Accepted
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
1.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: June 2021 1.2 NHS Test and Trace (NHST&T) is committed to transparency and to publishing data that is properly validated, meets the highest standards, and provides a meaningful gauge of its effectiveness. NHST&T publishes data across a wide range of business areas. 1.3 The total time taken to reach contacts after the ‘index case’ (the person who has tested positive) first reports symptoms and orders a test is a critical indicator. The government has begun publishing this in the weekly statistics for NHST&T (link below). The number of days for which people are asked to self-isolate depends on the time taken for the index case to report symptoms and book a test, the turnaround time for testing, and the time taken to identify and reach contacts. By June 2021, the Department of Health and Social Care (the department) will explore the quality of the data on this with a view to regular publication if acceptable. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has been commissioned to gather information on compliance with self-isolation, but on a monthly basis, rather than weekly, because levels of compliance are unlikely to be volatile enough to need weekly tracking. ONS has begun publishing compliance data for those who have tested positive, and those who have been in contact with a positive case. 1.4 The time taken to reach contacts after the index case reporting symptoms is in the “data tables” document which can be accessed here (selecting the relevant week). 1.5 The department continues to evaluate the impact of the NHST&T service on infection levels. In February it published the Rὺm Model Technical Annex which estimated the effect of testing, tracing and self-isolation on the R number. The department is developing plans to publish estimates periodically in future, in line with the Committee’s recommendation.
Source
Committee
Public Accounts Committee
Report
Forty-Seventh Report - COVID-19: Test, track and trace (part 1)
10 Mar 2021
HC 932
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age
5.4 yrs
Report published
10 Mar 2021