19 Accepted

We asked the Departments how much they expected the extended furlough scheme and the SEISS...

Recommendation
We asked the Departments how much they expected the extended furlough scheme and the SEISS would cost the taxpayer on top of the £55 billion spent so far. HM Treasury told us that it was not responsible for forecasting the expected cost of the scheme, which would be published by the Office for Budget responsibility in a few weeks. We were concerned that neither Department was able to provide any details on how much the extension to the schemes would cost. HM Treasury said the final costs would depend on take-up levels which in turn depended on labour market forecasts. It told us that it had a broad range of estimates, so it had a sense of what the maximum cost of the extended schemes might be and what range the costs were expected to be within, but we unable to provide the figures during our evidence session.52 We were concerned that, even if the OBR does the detailed number crunching, HM Treasury should at the very least be providing the Chancellor with some ballpark costings before implementing any government policies.53 46 Qq 97–98 47 HM Treasury, Further details of the Job Retention Bonus announced, available at: www.gov.uk/government/ news/further-details-of-the-job-retention-bonus-announced 48 Q 101 49 Q 38 50 Q 51 51 Q 99 52 Qq 15–17 53 Q 34 16 Covid-19: Support for jobs
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the recommendation and states it has been implemented, confirming that the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury wrote to the committee on 20 January 2021 outlining how HM Treasury will assess value for money. Revised costs will be set out at the next Budget.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government Accepted
7.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 7.2 As requested by the Committee, the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury wrote to the committee on 20 January 2021 outlining how HM Treasury will assess value for money (VFM) for the extended schemes. HM Treasury considered the VFM of the schemes and subsequent changes at key stages of the policy making process. Ensuring VFM, protecting employment and supporting businesses were central to the decision-making for the CJRS and SEISS extensions. Extending the CJRS was a critical response to the economic conditions, and the Office of Budget Responsibility have estimated that this extension will support up to 6 million jobs in November 2020 declining thereafter. The OBR have also estimated that unemployment would have been higher in the second quarter of 2021 in the absence of the CJRS and other measures. 7.3 The revised cost of the CJRS and SEISS will be set out at the next Budget in March 2021. Given the economic and fiscal significance of the CJRS, HM Treasury and HMRC are undertaking an evaluation of the schemes. 7.4 In December 2020, the departments published the Evaluation Plan for the CJRS, which sets out their approach to evaluating the CJRS. 7.5 The CJRS evaluation will draw on the Magenta Book and Green Book. The departments also plan to evaluate the SEISS, although self-assessment data will not be available until at least 2022.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 5.6 yrs
Report published 20 Dec 2020