24 Rejected

Department's £850 million ARR cost estimate lacks sufficient evidence for NAO audit assurance.

Conclusion
At the time of publication of the NAO’s report, the Department had not provided the NAO with enough evidence to have confidence in the completeness and accuracy of the Department’s cost estimates.62 The Department estimates the total cost of the ARR to be £850 million, of which about £400 million has been spent so far, with £450 million to come. The Department said that it could, in anticipation of the super-injunction being lifted and the resulting parliamentary scrutiny, have accounted for the costs of the ARR separately.63 The Department told us that the overall cost of the ARAP scheme, the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme (ACRS) run by the Home Office and the ARR scheme could be over £5 billion.64 The Department said it was possible that it would be able to provide a more detailed breakdown that would allow the C&AG to give us more assurance about costs. The C&AG expects to produce his next report on Afghan resettlement in the first part of next year.65
Government Response Summary
The government rejects separately accounting for the ARR scheme due to complexity but proposes an alternative approach to provide indicative cost allocations for both schemes at the end of each financial year.
Government Response
Rejected
HM Government Rejected
5.1 The government disagrees with the recommendation. 5.2 The Afghanistan Response Route (ARR) and Afghan Relocations Assistance Policy (ARAP) offers are largely identical and utilise shared services (including for relocation, support and accommodation), differing only in qualifying criteria. While the department appreciates the importance of capturing costs relating to the data incident, to account for the ARR scheme separately would be disproportionately complex and resource intensive. The department instead proposes an alternative approach for costs incurred which will allow for a more accurate allocation of costs and meets reporting requirements, without introducing unnecessary complexity. 5.3 In order to support the Committee, the department can provide an indicative cost allocation at the end of each financial year. This would involve aggregating the total costs associated with both schemes at the end of each financial year and dividing this figure by the total number of individuals resettled under both schemes. The resulting average cost per person would then be multiplied by the number resettled under each scheme, providing an estimate of their respective costs. These updates will be included with the relevant six-monthly update, referenced at recommendation 1.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 0.7 yr
Report published 14 Nov 2025