8 Accepted

From February to April, NHSE&I’s estimate of how many mechanical ventilators the NHS would need...

Conclusion
From February to April, NHSE&I’s estimate of how many mechanical ventilators the NHS would need in a worst-case scenario changed repeatedly. Its estimates were based on reasonable worst-case planning assumptions assured by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision-makers during emergencies. On 12 February these estimates indicated a need of up to 59,000 beds with mechanical ventilators at the peak of the crisis and by 1 March, this had had increased to 90,000. On 24 March estimates reduced to a need of up to 17,500 by 13 April and again on 8 April to just 6,200 needed by early May.11 The Department explained that the reasonable worst-case scenarios, something it thought was only 5–10% likely to happen, reduced due to both the inclusion of the estimated impact of interventions such as social distancing in the models and a better knowledge of how the virus spread.12
Government Response Summary
The government agreed, outlining its purchase of thousands of ventilators and other equipment, and the implementation of a national loan process, asserting that sufficient stock and processes are now in place for trusts.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government Accepted
2.1 The government agrees with this recommendation. Re commendation implemented 2.2 Given the exceptional circumstances of the pandemic, since March 2020, DHSC and NHS E/I have worked together to provide additional support to NHS trusts to help ensure sufficient medical equipment, including ventilators, were available. 2.3 This has included the direct purchase by the government of 22,300 mechanical ventilators, 12,150 non-invasive ventilators, 9,500 CPAP machines and thousands more items of associated medical equipment. DHSC has also worked with NHS E/I to develop and implement an escalation and national loan process through which trusts could make urgent requests for this equipment which was then quickly and efficiently distributed to where it was needed. More information about this national loan process can be found on NHS England’s website. 2.4 Since March, over 30,000 items of equipment have been distributed across the UK through these processes, however significant volumes of equipment remain available in national stocks to distribute to Trusts (through Regional teams) if they need them. 2.5 Therefore, the department have assured themselves that the NHS have both the right processes in place and hold sufficient stock, to ensure trusts have all the equipment they need to respond to the pandemic.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 5.7 yrs
Report published 25 Nov 2020