We challenged DWP to explain whether it still expects Universal Credit overpayments to fall to 6.5% as it had previously committed to. DWP explained that 6.5% was the level implied in the business case as a result of the expected reduction in fraud and error from merging legacy benefits into Universal Credit. It added that there is no reason to think that it cannot still achieve the expected reduction, but that this would now result in a higher rate than 6.5% because the baseline level of fraud and error has increased. It concluded 7 Qq 13–14 8 Q 15 9 Q 13 10 DWP ARA 2022–23, page 272 11 Q 16 12 Q 16 13 DWP ARA 2022–23, page 111 14 Q 17 The Department for Work & Pensions Annual Report and Accounts 2022–23 11 that it might be that DWP is doing everything it possibly can but still does not achieve 6.5%, and that the key is doing that all it reasonably can and clearly demonstrating that its control activities are cost-effective.15 Forecasting future levels of overpayment