We questioned DWP on whether it expects the impact of the pandemic on fraud and error to gradually fade or to remain elevated for some time. DWP told us that although it expects the impact of the pandemic to fall away over time, it now believes that there is a general increase in the propensity to commit fraud in society, and as a result it may be “difficult to get back to where we were pre-pandemic”.16 This assumption is built into DWP’s forecast, which suggests that benefit overpayments will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2027–28.17 However, DWP cautioned that there is “considerable uncertainty” about the baseline level of fraud and error.18