We asked DWP to clarify why it assumes in its forecast that there is an ongoing increase in the general propensity to commit fraud in society. DWP explained that this is a judgement based on estimates produced by a range of other bodies. These include Cifas which has reported an 11% increase in fraud against organisations, the Public Sector Fraud Authority which identifies a 7% increase in fraud outside tax and welfare, and the Office for National Statistics that reports in its crime survey that 41% of all crimes are related to fraud. DWP told us it believes that, on the basis of these comparators, it is appropriate to assume that there will be a general increase in fraud of 5% per year. It also observed that the Office for Budget Responsibility was comfortable with building this assumption into its spring 2023 outlook.19