ETI-8 Response Accepted in Part

Update Optimism Bias Guidance

Recommendation

Optimism bias guidance, based on decades-old data, requires updating to include light rail projects and reflect current empirical evidence, with reviews every five years.

Published Evidence Summary
The following publicly available evidence relates to this recommendation:
- In November 2023, the Scottish Government stated it already operates in line with best practices but would consider updating guidance (Transport Secretary Statement on Edinburgh Tram Inquiry Report, Scottish Government, 2 November 2023).
- No published update to optimism bias guidance incorporating light rail project data or reflecting current empirical evidence has been identified to March 2026.
How was this evidence gathered?
Evidence searched by Claude (Anthropic) on 10 Apr 2026
Checked data held on this site (government responses, progress updates, independent evidence)
Jurisdiction
Scotland
Response
Accepted in Part
Accepted in Part Scottish Government
02 Nov 2023

Transport Secretary's Statement to Scottish Parliament, 2 November 2023: "We follow detailed Government guidance on procurement, risk and optimism bias as enshrined in the Treasury's Green Book, the Scottish Government's Client Guide to Construction Projects and the Scottish Public Finance Manual. [...] I emphasise that we will continue to very carefully consider each of the recommendations, noting where action has already been taken or has always been best practice as well as crucially where we can go further."

Read Full Response
Progress Timeline
Official Report
02 Nov 2023

Initial status based on Scottish Government and City of Edinburgh Council responses to the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry Report (September 2023).

Source
Report Edinburgh Tram Inquiry Report 12 Sep 2023
Responsible Bodies
Scottish Government Primary
Recommendation age 2.9 yrs
Last formal update 1000 days ago