Unreliable Climate Emissions Projections
Inconsistent and unreliable projections for UK aviation emissions reductions, reducing confidence in climate policy planning.
78 items
3 sources
Source spread
Where this theme appears
Unreliable Climate Emissions Projections has been flagged across 3 independent accountability sources:
1 PFD report
74 committee recs
3 NAO recs
When the same issue appears across inquiries, coroner reports, and regulators independently, it indicates a recurring issue across the public record.
Browse by source
Source-grouped records are useful for tracing where a concern came from. Large sections show the 50 strongest matches for that source; counts still show the full theme total.
Committee Recommendations (74) — showing 50 strongest matches
#22 — No BECCS projects in Track 1 despite importance for unachievable 2030 greenhouse gas removal targets
Recommendation: The original 2030 targets for the CCUS programme, which the government has now told us are unachievable, included a goal for the UK to achieve 5 mtpa of engineered greenhouse gas removals. The bulk of this was expected to be …
Gov response: 4b. PAC recommendation: … the Department and HM Treasury should also make sure any future support for BECCS is accompanied by monitoring arrangements that provide real assurance that industry is meeting sustainability criteria. 4.6 The …
Accepted
#21 — Concerns raised about CCUS effectiveness and unaddressed methane leakage from LNG supply chains
Recommendation: The Department recognised that there are some “contested views” concerning, for example, the effectiveness of CCUS in reducing emissions from gas–fired power stations.69 We received written evidence suggesting that there are higher levels of methane (a gas with significant greenhouse …
Gov response: 4. PAC conclusion: The Department and HM Treasury lack clarity on how they would take account of project underperformance and advances in scientific understanding as part of their ongoing assessment of the programme’s future. 4a. …
Accepted
#19 — 2030 carbon capture and storage targets deemed unachievable by the Department
Recommendation: In the latter part of 2024, the Department successfully concluded negotiations with two of the Track 1 projects. In December 2024, the Department announced it had signed contracts with the first two projects at East Coast Cluster: Net Zero Teesside …
Gov response: Introduction from the Committee Carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) technologies capture carbon before it is released into the atmosphere and store it permanently underground. They can be applied to a range of industrial applications, …
Not Addressed
#6 — Set out urgent new carbon capture targets and clarify how to address net zero shortfall
Recommendation: The Department has downgraded its ambitions for the CCUS programme, stating that the original 2030 ambitions are no longer achievable. The current CCUS programme is the government’s third attempt to introduce the technology. Compared with previous attempts, the government is …
Gov response: The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. amount of net carbon captured will commence when the CCUS networks begin operations. The government has built in obligations on the Transport & Storage Companies (T&Scos) and capture …
Accepted
#23 — BECCS considered essential for UK decarbonisation, despite reduced projected role by 2050.
Recommendation: Combining power generation using sustainably sourced biomass with carbon capture and storage (CCUS) has the potential to generate ‘negative emissions’–i.e. it could reduce the overall amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.65 Both the government and the Climate Change Committee (CCC), …
Gov response: 4.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: Autumn 2025 4.2 The department’s analysis suggests power BECCS technologies are part of a cost- effective pathway to meeting the UK’s climate change targets. …
Not Addressed
#22 — New Drax agreement offers limited impact on emissions and lacks BECCS investment incentives.
Recommendation: There are other factors which cast doubt on whether the government has reached a good deal. The new support agreement with Drax reduces the level of allowed supply chain emissions for the fuel it burns, from 55.6 grams of CO2 …
Not Addressed
#4 — Map critical path for BECCS deployment and develop contingency plans for decarbonisation goals.
Recommendation: The deployment of BECCS has been repeatedly delayed, even though it remains a key part of the government’s plans to decarbonise the UK. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) and DESNZ both see BECCS as essential to the UK achieving its …
Gov response: The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. effective pathway to meeting the UK’s climate change targets. Greenhouse Gas Removal technologies (GGRs) like BECCS can support net zero targets by delivering negative carbon emissions and producing …
Accepted
#2 — Estimate cost and test effectiveness of monitoring increased biomass sustainability and Drax's sourcing.
Recommendation: DESNZ has not made clear how its plans to strengthen the sustainability rules might work in practice. In its Biomass Strategy, published in August 2023, DESNZ committed to develop and consult on a common sustainability framework which could be applied …
Gov response: This is not a matter for the government to consider. The reports remain the property of Drax, and the government does not hold them. DESNZ officials were given temporary access to them to understand issues …
Under Consideration
#53 — Investigate using the tax system to incentivise carbon footprint reduction in existing properties.
Recommendation: As with the embodied and operational carbon recommendation (Para 138nb mbnj ) we believe that the Government should investigate how it can use the tax system to reduce the tax burden on properties that reduce their carbon footprint and/or increase …
Gov response: 95. As set out in our response to recommendation 29, On 16 December 2025 Government published a consultation on a new NPPF which included a proposed requirement for development proposals to take advantage of opportunities …
No Published Response
#52 — Prioritise and incentivise building retrofitting over demolition by strengthening reuse requirements and reducing VAT.
Recommendation: Government should prioritise and incentivise retrofitting over demolition by strengthening requirements to reuse, repurpose and refurbish buildings before any demolition. It is contrary to the Government’s environmental objectives to incentivise carbon-intensive new building over the re-use of existing sites. To …
Gov response: 95. As set out in our response to recommendation 29, On 16 December 2025 Government published a consultation on a new NPPF which included a proposed requirement for development proposals to take advantage of opportunities …
No Published Response
#51 — Prioritise strengthening policy focus on building retrofit and regeneration due to environmental benefits.
Recommendation: Although retrofit and regeneration of buildings is already encouraged in policy, it is often sidelined. Strengthening focus in this area should be prioritised, considering the range of benefits associated with doing so. (Conclusion, Paragraph 167)
Gov response: 95. As set out in our response to recommendation 29, On 16 December 2025 Government published a consultation on a new NPPF which included a proposed requirement for development proposals to take advantage of opportunities …
No Published Response
#50 — Retrofitting existing buildings offers more sustainable and environmentally friendly housing solutions.
Recommendation: Retrofitting existing buildings is more environmentally friendly and sustainable than demolition and new construction. We accept that not all existing properties can be converted into residential buildings, and do not deny that some new homes do need to be built. …
Gov response: 95. As set out in our response to recommendation 29, On 16 December 2025 Government published a consultation on a new NPPF which included a proposed requirement for development proposals to take advantage of opportunities …
No Published Response
#49 — Consult by April 2026 on financial incentives for lower embodied carbon products and manufacturing.
Recommendation: The Government could also consider other financial incentives in product areas where the cost differential makes adoption of lower embodied carbon products unattractive and support for manufacturing set up of lower embodied carbon products. We recommend that the Government consult, …
Gov response: 91. The Government is already exploring innovative financial mechanisms to accelerate adoption of lower embodied carbon products. For example, we are co-sponsoring an Advance Market Commitment (AMC) to pilot for low carbon concrete, delivered by …
No Published Response
#48 — Introduce eco-labelling for building products to popularise low-carbon materials in housebuilding.
Recommendation: Whilst the Government has taken initial steps to promote timber through the Timber Construction Roadmap, there remains a lack of clear incentives and guidance to encourage the adoption of low-carbon material in housebuilding. The Committee believes the Government should take …
Gov response: 85. We believe that more can be done to encourage, incentivise, and implement environmental and sustainable practices across the construction products sector. This must be done in a proportionate way that also delivers on safety …
No Published Response
#47 — Alternative building materials effectively reduce embodied carbon and support net zero ambitions.
Recommendation: Alternative building materials, such as timber and hemp, offer practical and effective ways to reduce the embodied carbon of buildings. Their use supports Government ambitions to reach net zero and continue to deliver on their sustainable housing target, in addition …
Gov response: 85. We believe that more can be done to encourage, incentivise, and implement environmental and sustainable practices across the construction products sector. This must be done in a proportionate way that also delivers on safety …
No Published Response
#46 — Update NPPF revision with clearer expectations and conduct consultation on embodied carbon reduction.
Recommendation: The December 2024 revision of the NPPF should be updated to include clearer and stronger expectations on embodied carbon for new developments. The current Government should also honour the promise made by the previous Government and conduct a consultation on …
Gov response: 83. On 16 December 2025 Government published a consultation on a new NPPF which included proposed changes to the climate change policies of the NPPF. This includes a proposed decision-making policy on climate change mitigation …
No Published Response
#45 — Revised NPPF lacks explicit reference to embodied carbon, limiting emission reduction.
Recommendation: The revised NPPF does not contain explicit reference to embodied carbon, despite a widely held opinion that the NPPF must play a central role in supporting low-carbon housing. This oversight limits the NPPF’s ability to minimise carbon emissions from new …
Gov response: 83. On 16 December 2025 Government published a consultation on a new NPPF which included proposed changes to the climate change policies of the NPPF. This includes a proposed decision-making policy on climate change mitigation …
No Published Response
#44 — Mandate major developers submit whole life carbon assessments for all planning applications.
Recommendation: Major developers should submit whole life carbon assessments as part of planning applications to local authorities; this should be mandatory for all major developments, as defined in the NPPF. The Government should consult on ways to financially incentivise housing development …
Gov response: 82. For the reasons outlined in our response to recommendation 24, we do not agree with mandating whole life carbon assessments at this time, however, we have committed to update Planning Practice Guidance to assist …
No Published Response
#43 — Accompany RICS whole life carbon assessment framework amendments with a formal statement.
Recommendation: We would encourage any amendments made to the RICS whole life carbon assessment framework to be accompanied with a formal statement, detailing the amendments and confirming that they have been approved to become part of the UK industry standard. This …
Gov response: 81. The Government is not currently considering adopting the RICS methodology as the UK industry standard for whole-life carbon assessments. However, we acknowledge this recommendation and will keep it under review.
No Published Response
#42 — Commission a review into Council Tax and Stamp Duty Land Tax for lower embodied carbon homes.
Recommendation: We recommend that the Government commission a review into Council Tax, Stamp Duty Land Tax and any other tax policies to consider the merit of offering lower bands of taxation for homes with lower levels of embodied carbon. (Recommendation, Paragraph …
Gov response: 78. Introducing incentives based on green energy installations could add significant complexity to the operation of the current property tax system, as well as having an impact on the Exchequer. SDLT is an important source …
No Published Response
#41 — Review taxation policies to incentivise homeowners, housebuilders, landlords, and tenants towards low-carbon homes.
Recommendation: The Government should consider what other steps it could take to encourage low-carbon approaches to building, including reviewing taxation policies to incentivise home owners, housebuilders, landlords and tenants to favour homes with lower levels of embodied carbon. (Recommendation, Paragraph 143)
Gov response: 76. The Government is committed to the 2050 net zero carbon emissions target and recognises that embodied carbon can account for a significant portion of a building’s whole life carbon emissions. We know that addressing …
No Published Response
#40 — Develop progressively ratcheted carbon targets and set timeframe for mandatory whole-life carbon assessments.
Recommendation: Additionally: a. “We recommend that following the introduction of whole life carbon assessments, the Government should develop progressively ratcheted carbon targets for the built environment, to match the pathway to net zero set out in periodic carbon budgets. These ratcheting …
Gov response: 74. The Government has set legally binding carbon reduction targets, including the Sixth Carbon Budget which legislates to cut emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. These targets cover all sectors of the …
No Published Response
#39 — Establish RICS methodology as the UK industry standard for whole-life carbon assessments.
Recommendation: We reiterate and support the recommendation given by our predecessor Committee on embodied carbon and whole-life carbon assessments: a. “The RICS Professional Statement on whole-life carbon assessments is fit for use and already familiar to UK industry. We recommend that, …
Gov response: 121. The Planning and Infrastructure Act establishes Natural England’s role in developing and implementing the NRF, setting out their core responsibilities for producing and delivering EDPs. 122. The NRF has been designed to operate on …
Under Consideration
#38 — Accelerate introduction of policy to reduce embodied carbon in the built environment.
Recommendation: Reducing embodied carbon is vital to decreasing the carbon emissions of the built environment and meeting the UK’s legally binding climate targets. Considering that key milestones for reducing carbon emissions are rapidly approaching, the Government must accelerate the introduction of …
Gov response: 116. Skills England regularly publishes assessments of priority skills needed across the economy to 2030, across 10 critical sectors including construction and housebuilding. The most recent assessment of labour demand, published in August 2025, sets …
Under Consideration
#8 —
Recommendation: Climate change poses a grave threat to the flood resilience of communities, with the Climate Change Committee warning that warming of 4°C or more implies inevitable increases in flood risk even in the most ambitious adaptation scenarios considered. The Government …
Gov response: Risks from flooding and coastal erosion are recognised in the Government’s UK Climate Change Risk Assessment and are a key part of the UK National Risk Register, ensuring Government plans effectively for a reasonable worst-case …
Not Addressed
#5 —
Recommendation: Trustees will need detailed and regularly updated guidelines provided by the Pensions Regulator to explain how they should consider the effects of climate change on pension scheme members. We recommend that the Pensions Regulator continuously monitor and update these guidelines.
Gov response: The Government notes the Committee’s concern that trustees need detailed and regularly updated guidelines to explain how they should consider the effects of climate change on pension scheme members, including guidance on TCFD reporting. The …
Under Consideration
#63 —
Recommendation: The volume of greenhouse gas emissions has a significant impact on the capacity of LDCs and SIDS to adapt to climate change. On 9 August 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Sixth Assessment report, which the …
Not Addressed
#62 —
Recommendation: We believe that the current level of ICF is fundamentally over-reported, reducing the credibility of declarations and scope for achieving climate adaptation and resilience. We are calling for full transparency in the reporting of climate finance to enhance the ability …
Gov response: The UK recognises that developing countries need transparency and predictability about what our own and other donors’ commitments mean for the $100bn goal and what aggregate levels of climate finance will be delivered in the …
Not Addressed
#60 —
Recommendation: Although the UK was rated among the better performers in this report, CARE stated that, like other countries, the data provided by the UK lacked clarity and completeness in terms of the recipients and programmes to be funded.132
Gov response: The UK recognises that developing countries need transparency and predictability about what our own and other donors’ commitments mean for the $100bn goal and what aggregate levels of climate finance will be delivered in the …
Not Addressed
#56 —
Recommendation: Contributors raised significant concerns around the accuracy of the amount of global international climate finance that is being reported as pledged and disbursed for adaptation by the UK and other donor countries.123 In its report published in January 2021, CARE …
Gov response: The UK recognises that developing countries need transparency and predictability about what our own and other donors’ commitments mean for the $100bn goal and what aggregate levels of climate finance will be delivered in the …
Not Addressed
#55 —
Recommendation: In its biennial progress report (December 2020), the Government stated that: Our funding will be new and in addition to our previous £5.8 billion ICF commitment.118 Many contributors criticised this statement for its interpretation of ‘new and additional’.119 The NGOs …
Gov response: The UK recognises that developing countries need transparency and predictability about what our own and other donors’ commitments mean for the $100bn goal and what aggregate levels of climate finance will be delivered in the …
Not Addressed
#54 —
Recommendation: We heard that another challenge was the different interpretation of the term ‘new and additional’. At COP15 in Copenhagen (2009), high-income countries agreed to provide new and additional funding “approaching US$30 billion” for 2010–2012 for climate adaptation and mitigation.116 Although …
Not Addressed
#53 —
Recommendation: In their paper on climate finance, Roberts et al stated that the “US$100 billion per year climate finance promise had deep flaws, making it impossible to now assess whether it has been met.”113 Although the pledge of US$100 billion per …
Not Addressed
#52 —
Recommendation: Despite its omnipresence in climate negotiations, there is no officially agreed definition of climate finance.110 In November 2020, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported that the level of climate finance was US$78.9 billion in 2018.111 Yet, the …
Not Addressed
#5 —
Recommendation: We believe that the current level of international climate finance is fundamentally over-reported, reducing the credibility of declarations and scope for achieving climate adaptation and resilience. We are calling for full transparency in the reporting of climate finance to enhance …
Gov response: . Government response: Partially agree The UK recognises that developing countries need transparency and predictability about what our own and other donors’ commitments mean for the $100bn goal and what aggregate levels of climate finance …
Under Consideration
#9 —
Recommendation: We recommend that following the introduction of whole-life carbon assessments, the Government should develop progressively ratcheted carbon targets for the built environment, to match the pathway to net zero set out in periodic carbon budgets. These ratcheting targets should be …
Gov response: The Net Zero Strategy sets out Government’s ambitions to help the construction sector improve their reporting on embodied carbon in buildings and confirmed we will explore the potential of a maximum embodied carbon level for …
Partially Accepted
#17 —
Recommendation: The Government should ensure that delivery of the Seventh Carbon Budget is grounded primarily in early, high-confidence emissions reductions where possible. Greenhouse gas removals should be treated as conditional and supplementary, not as substitutes for mitigation. (Recommendation, Paragraph 93)
Response Pending
#16 —
Recommendation: Delivery of the Seventh Carbon Budget relies on nascent technologies and on greenhouse gas removals, including both land-based approaches and engineered removals, some of which face significant uncertainty over scale, cost, and delivery timescales. While these options are necessary for …
Response Pending
#7 — Commission comparative analysis of UK aircraft emissions models with Climate Change Committee.
Recommendation: We recommend that the Government work with the Climate Change Committee and Sustainable Aviation on a comparative analysis of the models underpinning the projections for UK aircraft emissions, so as to reach consensus, as far as possible, on the likely …
Gov response: The Government partially agrees with this recommendation. The forthcoming SAF mandate will support SAF that is derived from wastes, residues, or low carbon energy. Strict sustainability criteria will ensure significant GHG emissions savings are delivered …
Under Consideration
#6 — Varying projections for UK aviation emissions reductions by 2050 lack reliability
Recommendation: The outputs from the modelling undertaken by the Climate Change Committee, the Government and Sustainable Aviation vary as to the projections of likely emissions reductions from UK aviation by 2050. In some instances these variations are substantial, and tend to …
Gov response: The Government agrees with this recommendation. The Government’s vision is for the UK to be a global leader in the development, production, and use of SAF, allowing us to grow the sector sustainably and achieve …
Accepted
#18 — Integrate Antarctic research and preservation into broader international climate strategies.
Recommendation: To safeguard Antarctica’s environment, it is crucial to integrate Antarctic research and preservation into broader international climate strategies. Rising sea levels, driven by climate change in Antarctica, pose an existential risk to the UK, making it imperative to act now …
Gov response: The Government partially accepts this recommendation. 12. The Antarctic environment is changing more rapidly than expected. Over the past few years significant changes have been observed in Antarctica, including the reduction in sea ice extent, …
Accepted
#16 — Limiting global warming to 1.5°C critical for preventing Antarctic ice sheet destabilisation.
Recommendation: Evidence presented during the course of this inquiry highlights the critical importance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Achieving this target is essential for preventing further destabilisation of Antarctica’s ice sheets and glaciers, which are already experiencing significant changes due …
Gov response: The Government accepts this recommendation. 21. The UK is fully committed to delivering the ambition of the Paris Agreement, to keep warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. …
Accepted
#11 —
Recommendation: We asked whether by the time we get to COP 26 everybody will have a good idea of exactly how the government is going to meet its net carbon target by 2050. HM Treasury told us this was really a …
Gov response: 1a: PAC recommendation: HM Treasury should aim to become an exemplar finance department in supporting government’s environmental goals like net zero; 1.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: Autumn 2021 1.2 …
Not Addressed
#61 —
Recommendation: The FCDO told us that the UK reported its ICF at programme level—that is, a more granular level—to the UNFCCC, and provided details such as programme codes.133 It also told us that all its programme documentation is held in the …
Gov response: The UK recognises that developing countries need transparency and predictability about what our own and other donors’ commitments mean for the $100bn goal and what aggregate levels of climate finance will be delivered in the …
Not Addressed
#17 —
Recommendation: We welcome the innovative steps the UK Government has taken to support Nigeria’s transition to a low carbon economy. However, we believe there is scope for higher ambition in its goals and greater clarity in its approach. We recommend the …
Gov response: We agree with this recommendation and it aligns with our existing work and approach in this area. The UK Government is supportive of Nigeria’s transition to a low carbon economy and is working with international …
Accepted
#8 —
Recommendation: The timeline for the Future Homes Standard should be brought forward to December 2023 to align the timeframes for addressing operational and embodied carbon. This will help provide the industry with the confidence it requires to construct low- carbon, energy …
Gov response: The Government will not look to alter the timeframe for the Future Homes Standard. The 2025 timeline delivers on our net zero commitments, while ensuring that new homes are delivered in sufficient numbers in the …
Not Accepted
#13 — Other Defence organisations lack detailed plans to achieve net zero by 2050.
Recommendation: We note with interest the RAF setting itself a demanding target for reducing carbon emissions—a decade ahead of the Government’s 2050 goal—and look forward to examining the detailed plan for how it will be achieved. The RAF has also set …
Gov response: . 10 First Special Report: Defence and Climate Change The MOD’s stated 2050 strategic ambition is to contribute to the UK’s legal commitment to reach Net Zero Emissions by 2050, where it is practical to …
Accepted
#12 — Adopt Science-Based Targets for Defence and develop carbon reduction plans for suppliers.
Recommendation: We welcome the Ministry of Defence’s efforts to expand coverage of carbon emissions, but more needs to be achieved to ensure all Defence emissions are measured. Best commercial practice for promoting emissions reductions and net-zero targets are the Science Based …
Gov response: . The MOD welcomes the Committee’s acknowledgement of the expansion of its emission reporting. However, it is currently not planning on using Science Based Targets (SBT) as part of its planned approach. Using SBTs could …
Not Accepted
#11 — Ensure Defence sets more demanding Greening Government Commitments targets for 2025-2030.
Recommendation: The Ministry of Defence is in line to achieve its Greening Government Commitments’ carbon reduction targets early, but these are insufficiently demanding. It appears that the Ministry can meet its targets entirely by taking advantage of the decarbonisation of the …
Gov response: . The Government remains completely committed to its net zero and Greening Government Commitments and is a world leader in decarbonisation. Our targets keep us on track to meet these, and to meet international commitments …
Accepted
#10 — Publish in-depth annual review of Defence climate performance and explain reporting discrepancies.
Recommendation: The Ministry of Defence should return to publishing a more in-depth, stand-alone annual review of its climate and sustainability performance, with independent verification of emissions measuring and reporting. It should commission work to better understand total defence carbon emissions. It …
Gov response: . In FY2021-22 the MOD voluntarily expanded the scope of reporting in its Annual Reports and Accounts to cover emissions associated with the worldwide estate, international business travel and those it can directly influence including …
Not Accepted
NAO Audit Recommendations (3)
Decarbonising the power sector
In developing arrangements to oversee progress against its plan, DESNZ should: d) review the capability of its modelling to refine and update the most cost-effective system-wide approach to achieving net zero, including power sector decarbonisation. It should consider, for example, …
Accepted
Resilience to animal disease
Defra and APHA should, over the next 18 months: d develop a coherent, time-bound strategy and plan that sets out how they will ensure resilience to animal disease within the context of increasing risk from factors such as climate change …
Accepted
Energy bills support: an update
DESNZ should consider how it might use its understanding of the uncertainty around, for example, wholesale energy prices and changes in demand to improve its assessment of the costs of future interventions.
Accepted