16 Rejected

We considered the Department’s controls over the costs of the Plan’s largest programmes, in particular...

Conclusion
We considered the Department’s controls over the costs of the Plan’s largest programmes, in particular the nuclear projects such as Dreadnought submarines and the replacement Warhead programme. As the NAO notes, nuclear projects amount to about £60 billion in the Plan, which is more than a quarter of its value.34 We were particularly concerned that the Department sees the nuclear projects as a blank cheque from HM Treasury, especially the Dreadnought programme which has a £10 billion contingency.35 We noted that, between 2018 and 2020, the NAO had identified over £1 27 Q24 28 Q28 29 Q29 30 NAO report Figure 2 31 Q31 32 Q94 33 Q95 34 NAO report Figure 9 35 Q126 12 Ministry of Defence Equipment Plan 2021–31 billion of unnecessary costs on nuclear projects because of poor management decisions.36 We also noted that the Department’s Cost Assurance and Analysis Service concluded that the Department has under-forecast nuclear project costs in the Plan by £4.8 billion.37
Government Response Summary
The government explicitly disagrees with the committee's conclusion regarding controls over nuclear project costs. It defends its transparency, existing scrutiny of Dreadnought contingency funds with HM Treasury, and outlines ongoing work to provide cost estimates for the Replacement Warhead programme.
Government Response
Rejected
HM Government Rejected
2.1 The government disagrees with the Committee’s recommendation. 2.2 The department is committed to transparency, and already publishes information about the cost of the Dreadnought programme in its annual update to Parliament on the UK’s future nuclear deterrent, in the Equipment Plan and in Major Projects Portfolio data. Whilst it is too early to provide cost estimates for the Replacement Warhead programme, the department is working with HM Treasury on cost estimates and funding arrangements for the programme. Subject to security considerations, cost information will then be included in these publications. 2.3 The Future Combat Air System Concept and Assessment phase involving government and industry concludes in 2024. It will provide the evidence and a degree of maturity of the programme specification, schedule, and associated costs. The department is also separately engaging with international partners on cost share and industrial benefits, which will also contribute toward the UK’s affordability position. Further detail will be shared as appropriate in future Equipment Plans and Major Projects Portfolio data. 2.4 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: Spring 2023 2.5 The purpose of the Dreadnought contingency is clearly defined. It was established in recognition of the difficulties in accurately forecasting the costs of such complex programmes. It allows for changes in the spending profile or total funding without resorting to spending cuts in the wider Defence programme, so that the Dreadnought programme, critical to the department’s continued national security, can be delivered on schedule. 2.6 The department’s access to Dreadnought contingency funding to date has been negotiated with HM Treasury and each request for contingency funding is subject to HM Treasury scrutiny and approval. 2.7 Discussions are already underway between the department and HM Treasury to agree the future governance of the Dreadnought contingency. As the holder of that contingency, HM Treasury will write to the Committee in due course. 2.8 Work is also underway between the department and HM Treasury on funding arrangements for the Replacement Warhead programme. Current assumption is that any contingency that may be agreed for that programme would be separate from the Dreadnought contingency.
Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 4.2 yrs
Report published 11 May 2022