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Ministry of Justice and HMPPS lack clear "red lines" for acceptable risks in probation reforms.

Recommendation
Given the importance of the programme for the future of probation services and the associated risks, we asked MoJ and HMPPS what progress they had made in setting clear risk thresholds for the programme. HMPPS explained that, given the scale of the challenge, it had to take bold measures and argued that having a high risk appetite did not mean that it would not be cautious during implementation. MoJ told us that the programme would have good governance arrangements, the programme board would follow government standards and it would not take inappropriate risks. However, neither MoJ nor HMPPS were able to explain to us what the “red lines” are, in terms of the level of risk they are willing to accept, to help monitor operational and public protection risks.43 38 Qq 22, 44–46, 51–54,56 39 RSP0002, RSP0003 40 Qq 56–59 41 Qq 60–61 42 Q 62 43 Qq 48–50 15 Closing the capacity gap
Government Response

A response document is linked to this report, dated 7 April 2026. Response attribution to this conclusion has not been verified. Read the response document.

Addressee Bodies
HM Treasury
Timeline
Recommendation age 0.6 yr
Report published 04 Feb 2026