In July 2025, HMPPS estimated that there would be a shortfall of 3,150 full- time equivalent probation staff in 2026–27, out of approximately 15,000 full-time equivalent sentence management staff required, even after its recruitment and prioritisation measures.44 Through its OFPS programme, HMPPS aims to free up operational capacity by 25% to close this shortfall. It explained that one third of the additional capacity will come through digital measures such as the AI transcribing tool, one third through process optimisation and one third through policy changes to the scope of probation services provided, for example, revisiting the scope of its ‘Reset’ programme.45