We asked whether freeing up 25% of capacity will be sufficient to improve performance. HMPPS told us that this is its estimate of what is needed to bring the service back into balance by April 2027, and which will allow staff to deliver a high-quality service.46 However, while its estimated capacity shortfall is based on its updated activity timings, it acknowledged that it reduced these timings down from staff-reported averages. HMPPS said this was because it found that staff were doing more than they needed to do and has issued staff with new guidance to help them complete tasks more quickly.47 Given that HMPPS’s internal review indicated that it needed to reduce workload by more than 25% to allow staff time needed for learning, we asked HMPPS why it did not agree with its own review. HMPPS explained that it agreed with the review’s broad conclusion that staff needed to be spending more time on training, but argued that additional time for this was already factored into its modelling.48 We challenged HMPPS on how it can be certain of the number of staff it needs if it does not yet know what the optimal caseloads for staff will be. HMPPS stressed that it is confident that its estimate of the shortfall is correct and that it knows what the optimal caseloads are at this point in time. However, it explained that it will need to reassess optimum caseloads as it introduces new ways of working.49