Optimism Bias in Business Cases
All Business Case versions must include risk assessments accounting for optimism bias per published government guidance.
- Scottish Government Green Book supplementary guidance requires consideration of optimism bias in Business Cases, but no published update specifically responding to this recommendation has been identified to March 2026.
How was this evidence gathered?
Response
Accepted
Response
AcceptedTransport Secretary's Statement to Scottish Parliament, 2 November 2023: "I am pleased to report that this Government and its public bodies already operate in line with these recommendations and best practice as evidenced by our excellent record of delivering major infrastructure projects including the Borders Railway, the Edinburgh Glasgow Improvement Programme, the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route and the Queensferry Crossing over the Forth Estuary, a complex engineering feat that has put our workmanship to the front and centre of global engineering. Furthermore, we follow detailed Government guidance on procurement, risk and optimism bias as enshrined in the Treasury's Green Book, the Scottish Government's Client Guide to Construction Projects and the Scottish Public Finance Manual. Indeed, the identification and management of risk and adherence to best practice on business case production and assessment rests at the heart of project and programme delivery within Transport Scotland and the wider Government. Transport Scotland always follows published best practice guidance when setting up project governance structures and has its own 'Governance Procedures for Investment Decision Making and Monitoring and Review' guidance." The City of Edinburgh Council also adopted this recommendation. Source: Chief Executive's report to Transport and Environment Committee, 16 November 2023.
Progress Timeline
Initial status based on Scottish Government and City of Edinburgh Council responses to the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry Report (September 2023).