Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service

Public Accounts Committee Open Inquiry
Opened: 10 Jul 2025 Parliament page
Reforms of probation services were carried out in 2014, which divided the service into two – a National Probation Service, dealing with the most serious offenders, and twenty-one private sector-led Community Rehabilitation Companies, dealing with lower-risk offenders. These reforms were heavily criticised , and the service was reunified in 2021 … Read more
15 Recommendations
12 Conclusions
1 Report
1 Oral session
2 Letters
1 Event
Oral evidence sessions 1 session
Adam Bailey · Ministry of Justice Dr Jo Farrar CB OBE · Ministry of Justice James McEwen · Ministry of Justice Jim Barton · HM Prisons and Probation Service Kim Thornden-Edwards · HMPPS
Recommendations & Conclusions
9 results
7 Conclusion Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
Probation Service performance has significantly worsened since 2021, failing most key targets.
HMPPS monitors performance against a range of targets to indicate whether the Probation Service is meeting its aims. Metrics for these targets measure activities at each stage of supervision against HMPPS’s target operating model, for example, the timeliness of appointments, … Read more
Government Response
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
HM Treasury
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8 Conclusion Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
Workforce shortages and high staff turnover remain key reasons for poor Probation Service performance.
We pressed MoJ on why performance had worsened over the last few years. MoJ explained that workforce shortages, which it inherited upon unification, exacerbated by high staff turnover, were the main reason for poor performance.10 Written evidence from the Rehabilitating … Read more
Government Response
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
HM Treasury
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9 Conclusion Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
Probation officer workloads remain excessively high despite prioritisation measures and new programmes.
HMPPS first introduced a prioritisation framework to help reduce staff workloads in 2022. But workloads remained high, in particular for probation officers, who were working at around 118% capacity on average, with highs of 126% in some regions including London … Read more
Government Response
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
HM Treasury
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11 Conclusion Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
Offender outcomes like reoffending rates and prison recalls have significantly deteriorated since 2021.
MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25.21 The Probation Service aims to reduce reoffending and protect the public. However, offender outcomes, such as reoffending rates, have deteriorated since unification … Read more
Government Response
The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced in April 2026. Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.
HM Treasury
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19 Conclusion Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
Our Future Probation Service' programme faces concerns about further disruption and staff pressure.
Crest Advisory and the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team also highlighted concerns that the programme will cause further disruption to the service, exacerbating pressures on already over-stretched staff.39 HMPPS told us that it was conscious that the service had been through … Read more
Government Response
The government agrees with the Committee's recommendation and states it will adhere to cross-government standards relating to risk management and digital delivery with governance to ensure the risk profile of all digital, process and scope deliverables is scrutinised.
HM Treasury
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20 Recommendation Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
Ministry of Justice and HMPPS lack clear "red lines" for acceptable risks in probation reforms.
Given the importance of the programme for the future of probation services and the associated risks, we asked MoJ and HMPPS what progress they had made in setting clear risk thresholds for the programme. HMPPS explained that, given the scale … Read more
Government Response
The government agrees to manage implementation risks through governance arrangements, escalating risks that can’t be mitigated. HMPPS uses secondary indicators, such as performance, staffing data, and staff surveys to monitor wider organisational health.
HM Treasury
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23 Recommendation Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
Significant uncertainties remain regarding achieving the 25% probation staff capacity reduction target.
It is not yet clear whether the 25% reduction in capacity can be achieved as planned, as HMPPS acknowledged that there remain many uncertainties within the programme, and that it does not yet have a full set of measures in … Read more
Government Response
HMPPS is committed to meeting the OFPS target, monitored through ministerial meetings and governance arrangements. If a gap becomes apparent, alternative options will be explored, using a prioritisation framework for risk-based decisions.
HM Treasury
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25 Conclusion Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
HMPPS believes sufficient third-sector capacity exists for rehabilitative services with new contracts planned.
We asked HMPPS whether there is sufficient capacity in the third sector to provide this support. HMPPS said that it already has more than 100 contracts in place for its CRS across the country, about two thirds of which are … Read more
Government Response
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on capacity in the third sector.
HM Treasury
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26 Conclusion Acknowledged
65th Report - Efficiency and resil…
Funding allocation for third-sector rehabilitative services remains unclear despite increased probation investment.
In written evidence The Prison Reform Trust told us that it welcomed the government’s commitment to increase probation funding by up to £700 million by 2028–29, but raised concerns that it is not clear how much will be allocated for … Read more
Government Response
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on funding for third sector rehabilitative services.
HM Treasury
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Government Response AI assessment · 26 of 15 classified

Total 15 recs + 12 conclusions
Correspondence 2 letters
21 May 2026 From committee Letter to the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Justice relating to Efficiency and resilience of the probation service, 21 May 2026
Parliament page
8 Jan 2026 To committee Letter from the Chief Executive Officer at HM Prison & Probation Service relating to his appearance before the Committee on its Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service evidence session on 01 December 2025, 15 December 2025
Parliament page